Difference between revisions of "TD11 (2145)/Past"
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THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT. | THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT. | ||
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+ | FORECASTER HUNTER | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Advisory 2=== | ||
+ | 4511 TCWC HPCOR | ||
+ | TROPICAL STORM NITSCHKE (4511) ADVISORY 002 | ||
+ | [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
+ | MSHPC HQ OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND | ||
+ | 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 4 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 | ||
+ | |||
+ | RECON FLIGHT REPORTED 37 KT SUSTAINED WINDS. RECENTLY-UPPED T-NUMBERS OF | ||
+ | 2.5 FROM BOTH HDCW AND UHWF... PLUS GENERAL APPEARANCE OF SYSTEM... INITIAL | ||
+ | ADVISORY IS UPPED AND SET... PERHAPS A BIT STRONGLY... AT 40 KT. | ||
+ | |||
+ | MOST COMPUTER MODELS STILL TAKE NITSCHKE INTO A LOOP. ALL SEVEN OF THEM | ||
+ | ALSO MAKE IT EXTRATROPICAL AND FOUR SUGGEST IT BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE | ||
+ | FUTURE... THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY | ||
+ | TENTATIVE... BUT WILL ASSUME EXTRATROPICALITY AT THE EARLIEST SUGGESTED | ||
+ | BY THE AFLE... 24 HOURS. | ||
+ | |||
+ | AT 3 AM HPT... TROPICAL STORM NITSCHKE WAS CENTRED NEAR 37.3N 23.9E... | ||
+ | OR ABOUT 550 KM... 345 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VICTORY UNION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED | ||
+ | WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 50 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL | ||
+ | PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. NITSCHKE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 26 KM/H. | ||
+ | |||
+ | OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... | ||
+ | 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H | ||
+ | INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 11/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT | ||
+ | INITIAL... 37.3 N 23.9 E... 40 KT | ||
+ | 11/0900H... 37.8 N 24.1 E... 40 KT | ||
+ | 11/1500H... 38.0 N 24.3 E... 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL | ||
+ | 12/0300H... 37.7 N 24.6 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL | ||
+ | 12/1500H... 37.2 N 24.4 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED | ||
+ | 12/2100H... ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM | ||
+ | |||
+ | THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT. | ||
FORECASTER HUNTER | FORECASTER HUNTER |
Revision as of 00:21, 8 September 2006
Tropical Depression Eleven
Advisory 1
4511 TCWC HPCOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (4511) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HQ OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND 8 PM PAX... 10 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 10 2145 WHILE HDCW AND UHWF BOTH STILL CLASSIFY THIS SYSTEM... FORMERLY 89NE.INVEST ... WITH T-NUMBERS OF 1.5... RECENT SHIP REPORTS FROM THE SSC ARMADON AND A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND NAVY SHIP THE NLES RUSSELL OF 32 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN A 120-KM RADIUS OF THE STORM JUSTIFY INITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN AT 30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM TO SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING... ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT COMPUTER MODEL RUNS SEEM TO SUGGEST QUICK STRENGTHENING THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE STORM MAKES A LOOP AND ENDS UP RIGHT BACK WHERE IT IS NOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AT 10 PM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS CENTRED NEAR 36.5N 23.6E... OR ABOUT 695 KM... 435 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VICTORY UNION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA. TD-ELEVEN IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT 17 KM/H BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A NORTHEASTERLY TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE AFLE... WHICH HAS THIS SYSTEM MAKING A LOOP BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 10/2200H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 36.5 N 23.6 E... 30 KT 11/0300H... 37.3 N 23.9 E... 40 KT 11/0900H... 37.8 N 24.1 E... 40 KT 11/2100H... 38.2 N 24.5 E... 45 KT 12/0900H... 37.5 N 25.0 E... 40 KT 12/2100H... 36.9 N 24.4 E... 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 13/2100H... 35.8 N 23.1 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED 14/2100H... ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... 36.5N 23.6E ABOUT 700 KM SW OF VICTORY UNION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA. TD-ELEVEN MOVING NORTH AT 17 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 2
4511 TCWC HPCOR TROPICAL STORM NITSCHKE (4511) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HQ OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 4 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 RECON FLIGHT REPORTED 37 KT SUSTAINED WINDS. RECENTLY-UPPED T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM BOTH HDCW AND UHWF... PLUS GENERAL APPEARANCE OF SYSTEM... INITIAL ADVISORY IS UPPED AND SET... PERHAPS A BIT STRONGLY... AT 40 KT. MOST COMPUTER MODELS STILL TAKE NITSCHKE INTO A LOOP. ALL SEVEN OF THEM ALSO MAKE IT EXTRATROPICAL AND FOUR SUGGEST IT BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE FUTURE... THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY TENTATIVE... BUT WILL ASSUME EXTRATROPICALITY AT THE EARLIEST SUGGESTED BY THE AFLE... 24 HOURS. AT 3 AM HPT... TROPICAL STORM NITSCHKE WAS CENTRED NEAR 37.3N 23.9E... OR ABOUT 550 KM... 345 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VICTORY UNION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 50 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. NITSCHKE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 26 KM/H. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 11/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 37.3 N 23.9 E... 40 KT 11/0900H... 37.8 N 24.1 E... 40 KT 11/1500H... 38.0 N 24.3 E... 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12/0300H... 37.7 N 24.6 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 12/1500H... 37.2 N 24.4 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED 12/2100H... ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER