Difference between revisions of "TD12 (2145)/Past"
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THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT. | THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT. | ||
| + | |||
| + | FORECASTER LAVAL | ||
| + | |||
| + | ===Advisory 2=== | ||
| + | 4512 TCWC HPCLC | ||
| + | TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (4512) ADVISORY 002 | ||
| + | [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
| + | MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU | ||
| + | 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 | ||
| + | |||
| + | SYSTEM NEAR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL WEAKENS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION... | ||
| + | BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... | ||
| + | |||
| + | LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... PARQUE | ||
| + | DE CORRACION... WESTERN EAST KOMPA RU... AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS | ||
| + | OF KOMPA RU OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. | ||
| + | |||
| + | TD-TWELVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. | ||
| + | |||
| + | ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. | ||
| + | |||
| + | BASED ON A WEAKENING SATELLITE PRESENTATION... AND LOW T-NUMBERS... | ||
| + | INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT. I WILL RESIST THE URGE TO END THE | ||
| + | STORM'S LIFE DUE TO POSSIBLE BURSTS OF NEW CONVECTION. | ||
| + | |||
| + | AT 9 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS CENTRED NEAR 23.1N 38.2E... | ||
| + | JUST NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERNMOST ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL OF EAST KOMPA RU. | ||
| + | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH... GUSTING | ||
| + | TO 30 KT... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. TD-TWELVE IS MOVING | ||
| + | NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H ... 7 MPH. | ||
| + | |||
| + | WITH THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS... STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED... AND | ||
| + | TD-TWELVE MAY NOT LAST AS LONG AS THE FORECAST ASSUMES. | ||
| + | |||
| + | OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST | ||
| + | 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 1.15 MPH | ||
| + | INITIAL TIME 11/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT | ||
| + | INITIAL... 23.1 N 38.2 E... 25 KT | ||
| + | 11/1500H... 23.6 N 38.6 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND PARQUE DE CORRACION | ||
| + | 12/0300H...INLAND EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND DISSIPATED | ||
| + | |||
| + | REPEATING THE 9 AM LOCATION... 23.1N 38.2E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 | ||
| + | KT... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. MOVEMENT | ||
| + | NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H. | ||
| + | |||
| + | THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. | ||
FORECASTER LAVAL | FORECASTER LAVAL | ||
Revision as of 02:36, 9 September 2006
Tropical Depression Twelve
Advisory 1
4512 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (4512) ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 SYSTEM NEAR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... PARQUE DE CORRACION... WESTERN EAST KOMPA RU... AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF KOMPA RU OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. TD-TWELVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. AT 3 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS CENTRED NEAR 23.0N 38.0E... ABOUT 95 KM... 60 MILES... NORTHWEST OF LA CIUDAD ON LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL OF EAST KOMPA RU. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... GUSTING TO 40 KT... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. TD-TWELVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H ... 7 MPH. BECAUSE OF ITS GUSTS TO ABOVE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING PUT INTO PLACE. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... THE PARQUE DE CORRACION... AS WELL AS THE WESTERN COAST OF FIDELIS FROM NEW PIEZAS EAST KOMPA RU NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR CITY KOMPA RU. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT - THE UHWF EVEN BRINGS TD-TWELVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS IT INTO A 65-KT HURRICANE BY 106 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION WAS DISREGARDED IN THE FORECAST... WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON THE HDCW EXTP. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR TD-TWELVE MAY INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM WITH SHEAR... AND SO TD-TWELVE MAY DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 1.15 MPH INITIAL TIME 11/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 23.0 N 38.0 E... 30 KT 11/0900H... 23.1 N 38.2 E... 30 KT 11/1500H... 23.6 N 38.6 E... 25 KT...INLAND PARQUE DE CORRACION 12/0300H... 24.4 N 39.3 E... 25 KT...INLAND EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND 12/1500H...INLAND DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 AM LOCATION... 23.0N 38.0E 95 KM NORTHWEST OF LA CIUDAD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. MOVEMENT NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT. FORECASTER LAVAL
Advisory 2
4512 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (4512) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 SYSTEM NEAR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL WEAKENS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION... BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... PARQUE DE CORRACION... WESTERN EAST KOMPA RU... AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF KOMPA RU OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. TD-TWELVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. BASED ON A WEAKENING SATELLITE PRESENTATION... AND LOW T-NUMBERS... INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT. I WILL RESIST THE URGE TO END THE STORM'S LIFE DUE TO POSSIBLE BURSTS OF NEW CONVECTION. AT 9 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS CENTRED NEAR 23.1N 38.2E... JUST NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERNMOST ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL OF EAST KOMPA RU. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH... GUSTING TO 30 KT... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. TD-TWELVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H ... 7 MPH. WITH THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS... STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED... AND TD-TWELVE MAY NOT LAST AS LONG AS THE FORECAST ASSUMES. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 1.15 MPH INITIAL TIME 11/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 23.1 N 38.2 E... 25 KT 11/1500H... 23.6 N 38.6 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND PARQUE DE CORRACION 12/0300H...INLAND EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 9 AM LOCATION... 23.1N 38.2E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. MOVEMENT NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTER LAVAL
