Difference between revisions of "TD12 (2145)/Past"

Revision as of 03:46, 16 September 2006

Tropical Depression Twelve

Advisory 1

4512 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (4512) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

SYSTEM NEAR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... PARQUE
DE CORRACION... WESTERN EAST KOMPA RU... AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
OF KOMPA RU OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.

TD-TWELVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH LAND.

AT 3 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS CENTRED NEAR 23.0N 38.0E...
ABOUT 95 KM... 60 MILES... NORTHWEST OF LA CIUDAD ON LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL
OF EAST KOMPA RU. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... GUSTING TO 40 KT...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. TD-TWELVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H
... 7 MPH. BECAUSE OF ITS GUSTS TO ABOVE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING PUT INTO PLACE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... THE
PARQUE DE CORRACION... AS WELL AS THE WESTERN COAST OF FIDELIS FROM NEW PIEZAS
EAST KOMPA RU NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR CITY KOMPA RU. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT - THE UHWF EVEN BRINGS TD-TWELVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS IT INTO A 65-KT HURRICANE BY 106 HOURS. THIS
SOLUTION WAS DISREGARDED IN THE FORECAST... WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON THE
HDCW EXTP. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR TD-TWELVE MAY INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM WITH
SHEAR... AND SO TD-TWELVE MAY DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST
1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 1.15 MPH
INITIAL TIME 11/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 23.0 N 38.0 E... 30 KT
11/0900H... 23.1 N 38.2 E... 30 KT
11/1500H... 23.6 N 38.6 E... 25 KT...INLAND PARQUE DE CORRACION
12/0300H... 24.4 N 39.3 E... 25 KT...INLAND EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND
12/1500H...INLAND DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM LOCATION... 23.0N 38.0E 95 KM NORTHWEST OF LA CIUDAD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. MOVEMENT NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

Advisory 2

4512 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (4512) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

SYSTEM NEAR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL WEAKENS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...
BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... PARQUE
DE CORRACION... WESTERN EAST KOMPA RU... AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
OF KOMPA RU OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.

TD-TWELVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

BASED ON A WEAKENING SATELLITE PRESENTATION... AND LOW T-NUMBERS...
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT. I WILL RESIST THE URGE TO END THE
STORM'S LIFE DUE TO POSSIBLE BURSTS OF NEW CONVECTION.

AT 9 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS CENTRED NEAR 23.1N 38.2E...
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERNMOST ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL OF EAST KOMPA RU.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH... GUSTING
TO 30 KT... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. TD-TWELVE IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H ... 7 MPH.

WITH THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS... STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED... AND
TD-TWELVE MAY NOT LAST AS LONG AS THE FORECAST ASSUMES.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST
1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 1.15 MPH
INITIAL TIME 11/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 23.1 N 38.2 E... 25 KT
11/1500H... 23.6 N 38.6 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND PARQUE DE CORRACION
12/0300H...INLAND EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 AM LOCATION... 23.1N 38.2E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25
KT... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. MOVEMENT
NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

Advisory 3

4512 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (4512) FINAL ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

A COUPLE OF RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES FAILED TO DETERMINE THE CENTRE OF
CIRCULATION. HDCW AND UHWF HAVE BOTH STOPPED CLASSIFYING TD-TWELVE...
AND THE SATELLITE IMAGE OF IT SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY... THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY RELEASED BY THE MSHPC
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL
CONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES AS LONG AS TD-TWELVE REMAINS A FLOOD OR
TORNADO THREAT.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE REMNANT LOW CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 38.6 EAST... INLAND DISSIPATING
OVER THE PARQUE DE CORRACION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KM/H...
30 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H ... 7 MPH.

THIS IS THE FINAL MSHPC PACKAGE ON THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
WATCHED FOR REGENERATION. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT
ADVISORY AT 9 PM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

HWS Advisory 1

TC12 HWSB HWULC
ADVISORY 1 ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU 
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

AT 9 PM HPT... THE REMNANT LOW CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 38.9 EAST... OVER WATER BETWEEN
THE PARQUE DE CORRACION AND THE EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND. REGENERATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH... 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HPA. THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 11 KM/H ... 7 MPH.

FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN EAST KOMPA RU AND SOUTHWESTERN
KOMPA RU. ISOLATED RAINFALL OF UP TO 9 INCHES IS POSSIBLE... RAINFALL OF
2-5 INCHES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... AS WELL AS THE
PARQUE DE CORRACION... COULD CONTINUE TO SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

OTHERWISE... NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.

NEXT HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER KRUGER

HWS Advisory 2

TC12 HWSB HWULC
ADVISORY 2 ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU 
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145

AT 3 AM HPT... THE REMNANT LOW CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 39.3 EAST... INLAND IN THE
EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH
... STILL WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA. THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11
KM/H ... 7 MPH.

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN EAST KOMPA RU AND SOUTHWESTERN
KOMPA RU. ISOLATED RAINFALL OF UP TO 9 INCHES IS POSSIBLE... RAINFALL OF
2-5 INCHES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... AS WELL AS THE
PARQUE DE CORRACION... COULD CONTINUE TO SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PARQUE DE CORRACION... 
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

OTHERWISE... NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.

NEXT HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER KRUGER

HWS Advisory 3

4510 TCWC HPCOR
HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 007
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145

GRIEL STRENGTHENS FURTHER AND IS NOW A 95-KT HURRICANE...

AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.S SOUTH
LATITUDE 6.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 2710 KM... 1695 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 KM/H... 
110 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A HIGH-END CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND COULD SOON
BECOME THE SEASON'S SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST AT 26 KM/H OR 16 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 HPA/
MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

I WILL HAVE TO BORROW HEAVILY FROM THE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION... 
AWAITING GRIEL IS VERY LITTLE. THE 29-DEG C WATERS WILL CONTINUE WEST
TO THE EDGE OF VENERATIO... WHEN IT DROPS OFF TO 27 DEG C. WIND
SHEAR IS LOW... 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT LAND IS IN THE WAY OR
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STORM TO IMPACT IT... YET. THEREFORE IT IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE... AND
GRIEL MAY BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM... AND WE
HAVE ALREADY SEEN HOW UNRELIABLE THEY ARE IN THIS AREA OF THE HEARTLAND.
THEREFORE... THEY HAVE BEEN DISREGARDED.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM...
175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 KM... 60 MILES
... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR VASSFFORCIA.

THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL
STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES...
PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA.
EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES...
PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. 

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 12/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 95 KT... CAT 2
12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3
12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E...110 KT 
13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...120 KT... CAT 4 
13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...125 KT 
14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...135 KT 
15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT 
16/0900H... 13.8 S 02.0 W... 95 KT

REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 6.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 175 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 HPA...
MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER CALTS