TD12 (2145)/Past

Tropical Depression Twelve

Advisory 1

4512 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (4512) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

SYSTEM NEAR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... PARQUE
DE CORRACION... WESTERN EAST KOMPA RU... AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
OF KOMPA RU OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.

TD-TWELVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH LAND.

AT 3 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS CENTRED NEAR 23.0N 38.0E...
ABOUT 95 KM... 60 MILES... NORTHWEST OF LA CIUDAD ON LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL
OF EAST KOMPA RU. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... GUSTING TO 40 KT...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. TD-TWELVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H
... 7 MPH. BECAUSE OF ITS GUSTS TO ABOVE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING PUT INTO PLACE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... THE
PARQUE DE CORRACION... AS WELL AS THE WESTERN COAST OF FIDELIS FROM NEW PIEZAS
EAST KOMPA RU NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR CITY KOMPA RU. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT - THE UHWF EVEN BRINGS TD-TWELVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS IT INTO A 65-KT HURRICANE BY 106 HOURS. THIS
SOLUTION WAS DISREGARDED IN THE FORECAST... WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON THE
HDCW EXTP. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR TD-TWELVE MAY INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM WITH
SHEAR... AND SO TD-TWELVE MAY DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST
1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 1.15 MPH
INITIAL TIME 11/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 23.0 N 38.0 E... 30 KT
11/0900H... 23.1 N 38.2 E... 30 KT
11/1500H... 23.6 N 38.6 E... 25 KT...INLAND PARQUE DE CORRACION
12/0300H... 24.4 N 39.3 E... 25 KT...INLAND EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND
12/1500H...INLAND DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM LOCATION... 23.0N 38.2E 95 KM NORTHWEST OF LA CIUDAD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. MOVEMENT NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT.