TD15 (2145)

MSHPC

Current warnings and watches

4515 TCWC HPCOR CCA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AMY (4515) FINAL ADVISORY 005...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145

...CORRECTED TO EXPLAIN CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FURTHER...

IF I WAS DUMBFOUNDED EARLIER WITH AMY'S REFUSAL TO STRENGTHEN...
I AM EVEN MORE DUMBFOUNDED NOW. IN 29 DEGREES CELSIUS WATER
AND 10-KNOT WIND SHEAR... AS WELL AS VERY CONDUCIVE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS... AMY HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH. THIS WILL THEREFORE BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON WHAT IS
LEFT OF AMY.

ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS SYSTEM... WHICH
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE LIFE-THREATENING AMOUNTS OF
RAIN OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. IF THIS SYSTEM MANAGES
TO REGAIN A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND REGENERATE... IT WOULD
BE RE-NUMBERED AS I CANNOT FIND ANY SIGNS OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRC
CENTRE RIGHT NOW.

BASED ON GENERAL MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WHILE IT WAS STILL A
TROPICAL CYCLONE... INITIAL MOTION OF THE TROUGH IS ESTIMATED
AT 025/9.

AT 9 AM HPT... TROPICAL STORM AMY HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH AND NO CIRCULATION CENTRE CAN BE FOUND ON SATELLITE.
THE TROUGH HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT... 55 KM/H/35 MPH...
MINIMUM PRESSURE READING RETURNED FROM SIX DIFFERENT METERS WAS
1001 HPA. ESTIMATED MOVEMENT OF THE OPEN TROUGH IS NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT 16 KM/H... 10 MPH.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 15/0900H
 INITIAL... OPEN TROUGH

REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT INFORMATION... AMY HAS DEGENERATED INTO
AN OPEN TROUGH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF UP TO 55 KM/H. MINIMUM
PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 1001 HPA... THE TROUGH IS ESTIMATED TO
BE MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KM/H.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM.
SHOULD REGENERATION OCCUR... THE SYSTEM WILL BE GIVEN A NEW
DESIGNATION.

FORECASTER HUNTER

LLIWO

DA04 TCWC LLIWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NR 5 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS THE REMNANTS OF DELTA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AMY

THIS IS AN OPERATIONAL TEST OF POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE WAY TCWC LLIWO
ISSUES ADVISORIES. THIS TEST WILL RUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOX
GULF SEASON.

FINAL ADVISORY NR 5
REMNANTS OF DELTA (AMY 4515) - HPA
INITIAL ANALYSIS AT 15/0930 LST
POSITION WITHIN 200 NM LAT +46.7 LON +26.4 POOR CONFIDENCE
MAX WINDS GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN SYSTEM.
MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 KM/H

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ANALYSIS FROM TCWC LLIWO.

ISSUED BY GORDON