Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"
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|pressure=994 hPa | |pressure=994 hPa | ||
|movement=North-northeast at 19 kt}} | |movement=North-northeast at 19 kt}} | ||
+ | ---- | ||
+ | TCUP3 WHCO 070045 | ||
+ | TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE | ||
+ | TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 5 | ||
+ | [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
+ | [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | ||
+ | 12:45 AM HPT MAY 7 2146... 1:15 AM LOCAL TIME | ||
+ | |||
+ | THE GOVERNMENT OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING | ||
+ | COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. NO COASTAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES REMAIN IN | ||
+ | EFFECT AS OF 12:45 AM HPT. | ||
+ | |||
+ | AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TERRITORY. FOR | ||
+ | MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WARNINGS AND WATCHES... REFER | ||
+ | TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE. | ||
+ | |||
+ | AT 12 MIDNIGHT HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO | ||
+ | BE NEAR 47.2 N 27.8 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED RAPIDLY TO 35 KT | ||
+ | ...NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH. EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A DEPRESSION | ||
+ | AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATER THIS MORNING. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE | ||
+ | IS ESTIMATED TO BE 998 HPA. | ||
+ | |||
+ | FORECASTER HUNTER | ||
+ | |||
---- | ---- | ||
TCAD3 WHCO 062150 | TCAD3 WHCO 062150 | ||
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NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H MAY 7 2146 | NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H MAY 7 2146 | ||
---- | ---- | ||
− | WXTC01 KBDP | + | WXTC01 KBDP 070040 |
− | TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER | + | TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER THREE |
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL | BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL | ||
− | + | ISSUED BY MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA | |
− | ISSUED AT | + | ISSUED AT 1:10 AM LOCAL TIME...0040 HPT MAY 7 2146 |
IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA | IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA | ||
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INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 | INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 | ||
AVALANCHE ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7 | AVALANCHE ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7 | ||
− | FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL | + | FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7 |
SLEET WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 | SLEET WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 | ||
− | + | ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED... | |
− | + | ||
− | + | AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... AND A SLEET WARNING... REMAIN IN | |
+ | EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNTIL 7 AM LATER TODAY. | ||
+ | |||
+ | AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY... AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING... REMAIN IN EFFECT | ||
+ | FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNTIL 1 PM LATER TODAY. | ||
− | + | ALL COASTAL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED. | |
− | + | ||
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. GUSTS FROM TROPICAL STORM | AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. GUSTS FROM TROPICAL STORM | ||
− | EHECATL TO | + | EHECATL TO ABOVE 65 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA... ESPECIALLY |
− | + | AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE STORM WEAKENS... GUSTS WILL DECREASE IN | |
+ | STRENGTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING... AT WHICH POINT THE HURRICANE | ||
+ | WIND WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED AND REPLACED WITH A MORE APPROPRIATE | ||
+ | WARNING. | ||
− | A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. | + | A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALMOST 100 MM OF PRECIPITAION... MOSTLY |
− | WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... WILL FALL ACROSS | + | RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT |
− | + | ALSO SOME SNOW... HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PENINSULA IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. | |
− | + | UP TO 255 MM OF PRECIPITATION... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE | |
− | + | THAT... WILL FALL IN TOTAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. MELTING SNOW AT LOWER | |
+ | ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. IF IN A WARNING | ||
+ | AREA... BE READY TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE IF NECESSARY. | ||
− | AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. AN AVALANCHE | + | AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. AN AVALANCHE WAS REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST |
− | + | 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NONE SINCE. THIS ADVISORY MAY BE DOWNGRADED | |
− | + | TO A WATCH LATER TODAY. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS... | |
NO MATTER HOW HIGH... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. | NO MATTER HOW HIGH... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. | ||
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AND VISIBILITY VERY POOR. AVOID DRIVING. | AND VISIBILITY VERY POOR. AVOID DRIVING. | ||
− | + | EHECATL MADE LANDFALL AROUND 2125 LOCAL TIME. IT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE... | |
− | + | WITH THE MSHPC CURRENTLY PREPARING A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE THAT THE STORM NOW | |
− | THE | + | HAS WEAKENED TO 35 KNOTS... 999 HECTOPASCALS. HIGH GUSTS... OCCASIONALLY TO OR OVER |
− | + | HURRICANE FORCE... ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED | |
− | + | TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS. | |
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY | + | THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 7:30 AM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN |
THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS. | THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS. | ||
− | SWC MTN | + | FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN/SWC MTN |
Revision as of 06:54, 30 August 2007
Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon) | |
---|---|
Tropical storm | |
As of: | 2100 HPT May 6, 2146 |
Location: | 46.9°N 27.6°E Inland over the Borleai Defence Post |
Maximum winds: |
85 km/h (50 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
Pressure: | 994 hPa |
Movement: | North-northeast at 19 kt |
Past advisories and discussions available here |
TCUP3 WHCO 070045 TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 5 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 12:45 AM HPT MAY 7 2146... 1:15 AM LOCAL TIME THE GOVERNMENT OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. NO COASTAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS OF 12:45 AM HPT. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TERRITORY. FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WARNINGS AND WATCHES... REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE. AT 12 MIDNIGHT HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 47.2 N 27.8 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED RAPIDLY TO 35 KT ...NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH. EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A DEPRESSION AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATER THIS MORNING. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 998 HPA. FORECASTER HUNTER
TCAD3 WHCO 062150 TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 5 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME ...EHECATL MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... REPORTS FROM THE GROUND AT THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL STORM EHECATL MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9:25 PM LOCAL TIME NEAR BORLEAI POINT WEST... AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM. AT 9 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT WEST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH FURTHER EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... FROM BORLEAI POINT WEST EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED SOON. REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AT LANDFALL. INITIAL MOTION IS . AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE INLAND OVER THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR LATITUDE 46.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.6 EAST. THIS POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM FORECAST STORM MOVEMENT AND GROUND REPORTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H... 50 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 305 KM... 190 MI... FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM. THESE GALE FORCE WIND RADII WILL SHRINK RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS THE STORM WEAKENS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 994 HPA. A BAROMETER AT BORLEAI POINT WEST OBSERVED A 993 HPA VALUE AS THE STORM MADE LANDFALL. BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M... 3 FT... WILL ALSO POSE A FLOOD THREAT. NOW THAT EHECATL IS INLAND AND OVER MOUNTAINS... THIS COUPLED WITH ITS FAR NORTH LATITUDE WILL QUICKLY TURN THE STORM EXTRATROPICAL. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER LAND FOR NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS... BY WHICH TIME IT WILL ALREADY HAVE LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. AS FOR THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... MOST MODELS TAKE IT OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND AND NORTHWARD... BECOMING A POWERFUL LOW... BEFORE DISSIPATING IT IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 06/2100H INITIAL... 46.9 N 27.6 E... 45 KT 07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 07/2100H...OVER WATER/EXTRATROPICAL REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... INLAND OVER BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR 46.9 NORTH 27.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT MAY 7. FORECASTER HUNTER
TCTW03 FOLN 062150 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA ISSUED 2150 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 2100H MAY 6 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: EHECATL WARNING NR: 5 POSITION: 46.9N 27.6E...INLAND ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: NE 19KT CENT PRES: 994HPA MAX WIND: 45KT MAX GUST: VARIABLE FCST 12HR PSTN: 48.0N 28.5E...INLAND FCST 12HR WINDS: 25KT G VARIABLE NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H MAY 7 2146
WXTC01 KBDP 070040 TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER THREE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL ISSUED BY MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA ISSUED AT 1:10 AM LOCAL TIME...0040 HPT MAY 7 2146 IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES... INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 AVALANCHE ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7 FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7 SLEET WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED... AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... AND A SLEET WARNING... REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNTIL 7 AM LATER TODAY. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY... AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING... REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNTIL 1 PM LATER TODAY. ALL COASTAL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. GUSTS FROM TROPICAL STORM EHECATL TO ABOVE 65 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA... ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE STORM WEAKENS... GUSTS WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING... AT WHICH POINT THE HURRICANE WIND WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED AND REPLACED WITH A MORE APPROPRIATE WARNING. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALMOST 100 MM OF PRECIPITAION... MOSTLY RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT ALSO SOME SNOW... HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PENINSULA IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. UP TO 255 MM OF PRECIPITATION... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... WILL FALL IN TOTAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. MELTING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. IF IN A WARNING AREA... BE READY TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE IF NECESSARY. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. AN AVALANCHE WAS REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NONE SINCE. THIS ADVISORY MAY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WATCH LATER TODAY. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS... NO MATTER HOW HIGH... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. A SLEET WARNING IS IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS WILL MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY AND VISIBILITY VERY POOR. AVOID DRIVING. EHECATL MADE LANDFALL AROUND 2125 LOCAL TIME. IT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE... WITH THE MSHPC CURRENTLY PREPARING A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE THAT THE STORM NOW HAS WEAKENED TO 35 KNOTS... 999 HECTOPASCALS. HIGH GUSTS... OCCASIONALLY TO OR OVER HURRICANE FORCE... ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 7:30 AM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS. FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN/SWC MTN