Difference between revisions of "TD09 (2145)/Past"

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See also:
 
See also:
 
*[[/LLIWO|Past TCWC LLIWO warnings]]
 
*[[/LLIWO|Past TCWC LLIWO warnings]]
−
 
+
This page lists all past MSHPC warnings on Tropical Storm Oren.
 
----
 
----
 +
==Tropical Depression Nine==
 +
===Advisory 1===
 +
4509 TCWC HPCOR
 +
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (4509) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001
 +
[[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE]] HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 +
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
 +
8 PM PAX... 10 PM HPT... 10:30 PM LOCAL TIME APR 14 2145
 +
 +
SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA DETERMINED TO BE A
 +
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT FROM
 +
COMBINATION OF T1.5 AND T2.5 T-NUMBERS FROM HDCW AND UHWF RESPECT-
 +
IVELY... AS WELL AS THE TCWC LLIWO ADVISORY.
 +
 +
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
 +
 +
INTERESTS IN THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
 +
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 +
 +
AT 10 PM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE... BETA.02... WAS LOCATED
 +
NEAR 47.3 25.5 OR ABOUT 160 KM OR 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE WRN
 +
GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H
 +
OR 35 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HECTOPASCALS. TD NINE
 +
IS MOVING NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 16 KM/H... 10 MPH.
 +
 +
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... TD NINE WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN 12 HOURS.
 +
 +
OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2
 +
CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H
 +
INITIAL FORECAST TIME 14/2200 HPT
 +
  INITIAL... 47.3 N 25.5 E... 30 KT
 +
15/0300H... 47.5 N 25.7 E... 30 KT
 +
15/0900H... INLAND DISSIPATED
 +
 +
REPEATING LATEST POSITION... 160 KM OFF THE GULP MTN PN COAST. MSW 55
 +
KM/H... MIN CTR PRS 1007 HPA. MOVEMENT N 16 KM/H.
 +
 +
THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 AM HPT.
 +
 +
HUNTER
 +
 +
===Advisory 3===
 +
4509 TCWC HPCOR
 +
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OREN (4509) SPECIAL/FINAL ADVISORY 003
 +
[[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE]] HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 +
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
 +
4:30 AM PAX... 6:30 AM HPT... 7 AM LOCAL TIME APR 15 2145
 +
 +
...TROPICAL STORM OREN MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS BACK TO A
 +
TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED.
 +
 +
LANDFALL WAS MADE AT ABOUT 0642H LST... 6:12 AM HPT.
 +
 +
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE GULP MOUNTAIN RANGE.
 +
 +
AT 6:30 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION OREN... WAS LOCATED INLAND
 +
NEAR 47.8N 25.7E OVER THE WESTERN MOST EDGES OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
 +
RANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H
 +
OR 35 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HECTOPASCALS. OREN
 +
HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AND IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS VERY SLOWLY...
 +
DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT THREE HOURS.
 +
 +
THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY PACKAGE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION OREN
 +
FROM THE MSHPC. HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT
 +
ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT.
 +
 +
FORECASTERS JARVINEN/GUNTHER/RINDLI
 +
 +
==Tropical Storm Oren==
 +
===Advisory 2===
 +
4509 TCWC HPCOR
 +
TROPICAL STORM OREN (4509) ADVISORY 002
 +
[[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE]] HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 +
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
 +
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME APR 15 2145
 +
 +
CONTINUED T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM UHWF... AND A QUIKSCAT PASS AT
 +
0245H LST... AS WELL AS T-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM HDCW AT 0105H LST
 +
... JUSTIFIES INCREASING INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS... THUS
 +
MAKING TD-NINE TROPICAL STORM OREN... AND MAKING IT THE NINTH
 +
TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... AFTER VEIRU... GEORGE... FELICIA
 +
... FOUR... RUVA... ABADDON... YURI... AND GYARNIFQ.
 +
 +
EMERGENCY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN INSTITUTED FOR THE
 +
WESTERN COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AS THIS IS A
 +
MOUNTAINOUS AREA... DEADLY LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS OF
 +
75 TO 205 MM ARE POSSIBLE... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 430
 +
MM POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
 +
WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN SIX HOURS.
 +
 +
INTERESTS IN THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
 +
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM OREN.
 +
 +
AT 3 AM HPT... TROPICAL STORM OREN... TD BETA.02... WAS LOCATED
 +
NEAR 47.5 25.7 OR ABOUT 80 KM OR 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE WRN EDGE OF
 +
THE GULP MOUNTAIN RANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KM/H
 +
OR 40 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HECTOPASCALS. OREN
 +
IS MOVING NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 24 KM/H... 15 MPH.
 +
 +
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... OREN WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN 4 HOURS.
 +
 +
OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2
 +
CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H
 +
INITIAL FORECAST TIME 15/0300 HPT
 +
  INITIAL... 47.5 N 25.7 E... 35 KT
 +
15/0900H... INLAND DISSIPATED
 +
 +
REPEATING LATEST POSITION... 80 KM OFF THE GULP MTN PN COAST. MSW 60
 +
KM/H... MIN CTR PRS 1004 HPA. MOVEMENT N 24 KM/H.
 +
 +
THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 9
 +
AM HPT WITH A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT LANDFALL.
 +
 +
FORECASTER HUNTER

Latest revision as of 23:43, 4 September 2006

See also:

This page lists all past MSHPC warnings on Tropical Storm Oren.

Tropical Depression Nine

Advisory 1

4509 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (4509) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
8 PM PAX... 10 PM HPT... 10:30 PM LOCAL TIME APR 14 2145

SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA DETERMINED TO BE A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT FROM
COMBINATION OF T1.5 AND T2.5 T-NUMBERS FROM HDCW AND UHWF RESPECT-
IVELY... AS WELL AS THE TCWC LLIWO ADVISORY.

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 10 PM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE... BETA.02... WAS LOCATED
NEAR 47.3 25.5 OR ABOUT 160 KM OR 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE WRN
GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H
OR 35 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HECTOPASCALS. TD NINE
IS MOVING NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 16 KM/H... 10 MPH.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... TD NINE WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN 12 HOURS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 
CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME 14/2200 HPT
 INITIAL... 47.3 N 25.5 E... 30 KT
15/0300H... 47.5 N 25.7 E... 30 KT
15/0900H... INLAND DISSIPATED

REPEATING LATEST POSITION... 160 KM OFF THE GULP MTN PN COAST. MSW 55
KM/H... MIN CTR PRS 1007 HPA. MOVEMENT N 16 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 AM HPT.

HUNTER

Advisory 3

4509 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OREN (4509) SPECIAL/FINAL ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
4:30 AM PAX... 6:30 AM HPT... 7 AM LOCAL TIME APR 15 2145

...TROPICAL STORM OREN MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS BACK TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED.

LANDFALL WAS MADE AT ABOUT 0642H LST... 6:12 AM HPT.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE GULP MOUNTAIN RANGE.

AT 6:30 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION OREN... WAS LOCATED INLAND
NEAR 47.8N 25.7E OVER THE WESTERN MOST EDGES OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
RANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H
OR 35 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HECTOPASCALS. OREN
HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AND IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS VERY SLOWLY...
DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT THREE HOURS.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY PACKAGE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION OREN
FROM THE MSHPC. HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT
ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTERS JARVINEN/GUNTHER/RINDLI

Tropical Storm Oren

Advisory 2

4509 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL STORM OREN (4509) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME APR 15 2145

CONTINUED T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM UHWF... AND A QUIKSCAT PASS AT
0245H LST... AS WELL AS T-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM HDCW AT 0105H LST
... JUSTIFIES INCREASING INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS... THUS
MAKING TD-NINE TROPICAL STORM OREN... AND MAKING IT THE NINTH
TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... AFTER VEIRU... GEORGE... FELICIA
... FOUR... RUVA... ABADDON... YURI... AND GYARNIFQ.

EMERGENCY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN INSTITUTED FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AS THIS IS A 
MOUNTAINOUS AREA... DEADLY LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS OF
75 TO 205 MM ARE POSSIBLE... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 430
MM POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN SIX HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM OREN.

AT 3 AM HPT... TROPICAL STORM OREN... TD BETA.02... WAS LOCATED
NEAR 47.5 25.7 OR ABOUT 80 KM OR 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE WRN EDGE OF
THE GULP MOUNTAIN RANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KM/H
OR 40 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HECTOPASCALS. OREN
IS MOVING NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 24 KM/H... 15 MPH.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... OREN WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN 4 HOURS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 
CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME 15/0300 HPT
 INITIAL... 47.5 N 25.7 E... 35 KT
15/0900H... INLAND DISSIPATED

REPEATING LATEST POSITION... 80 KM OFF THE GULP MTN PN COAST. MSW 60
KM/H... MIN CTR PRS 1004 HPA. MOVEMENT N 24 KM/H.

THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 9
AM HPT WITH A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT LANDFALL.

FORECASTER HUNTER
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