TD16 (2145)
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| Tropical Disturbance Sixteen | |
|---|---|
| Open wave | |
| As of: | 0700 local time July 23, 2145 |
| Location: | Unidentifiable centre |
| Maximum winds: |
50 km/h (30 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 1013 hPa |
| Movement: | South at 20 km/h (13 mph) |
| See final advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here | |
4516 TCWC HPCOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (4516) FINAL ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC WARNING SUB-BUREAU CYCLONESVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND 7 AM PAX... LOCAL TIME... 9 AM HPT JUL 23 2145 DESPITE THE EVER-WEAKENING PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION... I AM STILL NOT WILLING TO DECLARE THIS DEAD YET. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE... SO IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE IF IT STILL HAS A GOOD CIRCULATION CENTRE. GOING WITH CONTINUITY... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN STAYS ALIVE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER SIX HOURS. THE SSTS ARE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO FALL... AND SHEAR IS BUILDING UP UNDER AND AROUND THE CYCLONE. I CANNOT SEE HOW THIS COULD POSSIBLY SURVIVE MUCH LONGER. THAT SAID... IT COULD ALREADY HAVE FAILED TO DO SO. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO THE SYSTEM... AND WILL REPORT BACK ON WHETHER A LLCC COULD BE DETECTED. A TUTT NEARBY IS MOST DEFINITELY NOT HELPING. INDEED... THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AT 3 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 0.4 EAST... OR ABOUT 1095 KM... 685 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DANNSTADT, INEPTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HPA OR MBAR... AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT NEAR 20 KM/H... 13 MPH. NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE ITCZ WITHIN 18 HOURS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 23/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT. INITIAL...DEGENERATED INTO OPEN WAVE REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 12.0 NORTH 0.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT NEAR 20 KM/H... 13 MPH. THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER LAVAL
