Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"

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ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.

TCUP3 HPCOR 050815 CCA
TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
8:15 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 6:15 AM PAX TIME... 8:45 AM LOCAL TIME

TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...

...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE FURTHER WATCHES...

THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH AT 8 AM HPT.

THE TRACK OF EHECATL HAS WOBBLED TO THE EAST... POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
WEAKENING HIGH. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RIDGE OVER THE GREAT FOLENISAN DESERT
IS FURTHER INFLUENCING SUCH STEERING CURRENTS. IF THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUES
OVER THE NEXT THREE TO SIX HOURS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN
GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA MAY BE DISCONTINUED.

AT THIS POINT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST COAST
OF POPULARFREEDOM INCLUDING PEARSON CLIFFS... BUT THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.

REPEAT...
AT 8 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH COAST
OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... EXTENDING EASTWARDS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM. A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULPS... FROM DESINCO EAST TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST.

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SINCE THE LAST FULL ADVISORY... AND PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. IF NECESSARY... ANOTHER TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATE... OR A SPECIAL ADVISORY... WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE THE NEXT SCHEDULED
FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM... WHICH WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT MAY 6.

FORECASTER JARVIS/CALTS

TCAD3 HPCOR 060345 CCA
SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 002... CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME

...CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY TO INLUDE INTERMEDIATE WARNING...

EHECATL IS MOVING AS EXPECTED ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS NOW
ENCOUNTERING THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. 

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS DUE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AGAIN IN TWO HOURS'
TIME. FOR NOW... EHECATL IS HELD AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS CONVECTIVE PULSES
NEAR THE CENTRE REMAIN INTERMITTENT... AND THERE ARE NO PERSISTENT AREAS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE APPARENT LLCC.

0245 HPT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM T1.5... TO ST3.0. SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN NO APPARENT CHANGE IN STRUCTURE OF THE STORM... THERE IS NO
CHANGE MADE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY... WHICH IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS. INITIAL
SIX HOUR MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 345/16.

AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK SOUTH TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING
SCHIMPOL AND TYSON. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... THIS WARNING
COULD BE CANCELLED BY TODAY AFTERNOON.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO THE TOWN OF
DESINCO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE
POST.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

THE LAND GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WINDS FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOW BEEN
CANCELLED.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.6 EAST... ABOUT 1000 KM OR 625
MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS POPULARFREEDOM... OR ABOUT 675 KM OR 425 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
HPA. THE RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST MOTION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS
DESCRIBED BELOW.

UP TO 135 MM... 5.3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER LOX LAND ISLAND IN THE NEXT
18 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 155 MM... 6.1 INCHES. A FURTHER 130 TO
190 MM... 5.1 TO 7.5 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULP MOUNTAINS.

NO CHANGE MADE TO WIND RADII FOR NOW... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 420 KM... 260 MILES... FROM STORM CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HIGH SOUTH OF THE GULPS.
WHAT THIS DOES TO THE FORECAST TRACK IS UNCERTAIN. WHETHER THE HIGH WILL NOW WEAKEN
FURTHER AND RETREAT... AND IF IT DOES WILL EHECATL FOLLOW THE HIGH OUT. FOR THE PAST
SIX HOURS EHECATL HAS TRACKED ALONG STEERING CURRENTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NOW THAT BOTH THE GRADIENT AND HIGH HAVE WEAKENED... THE FORECAST
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AND IN LOW CONFIDENCE.

BASED ON CONTINUITY... AM FOLLOWING PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IS. AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...
THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO HUGE ERRORS... DEPENDING ON THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SOUTH
OF THE GULPS. BASED ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SLIGHTLY EAST OF WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TURN BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT FOLENISAN DESERT BUILDS IN AND FORCES EHECATL
NORTHWARDS AND INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS
VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST... EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT AROUND 30 KM/H... 18 MPH. HOWEVER... IF THE FIRST SCENARIO VERIFIES...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM.

SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR.
BASED ON PREVIOUS FORECAST... NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR
SLIGHT FALLS IN PRESSURE AS IT UNDERGOES TROPICAL TRANSITION... BEFORE WEAKENING
CLOSE TO THE COAST. IF IT FOLLOWS THE HIGH OUT... THIS WILL BE WELL OFF AND IT
WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SOME FAVOURABLE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
12-24 HOURS IN THE NOLAN SOUND... BEFORE RAPID WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH... THE MODELS ARE RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE ON THIS ONE. UHWF
INITIALISES THE WEAKENING HIGH MOVING OUT AND EHECATL MOVING OUT WITH IT... AND
MAKES IT A 55-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. HDCW MEANWHILE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CURRENT RSC/HPC FORECAST... MOVING WNW-WARDS BACK TOWARDS MAINLAND LIVERPOOL ENGLAND.
DUE TO THE CURRENT SITUATION... NEITHER SCENARIO CAN BE RULED OUT RIGHT NOW.

IN THE BELOW FORECAST... ALL POINTS ARE SIX-HOURLY... AND ARE EXTREMELY LOW-CONFIDENCE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 06/0300H
 INITIAL... 45.3 N 26.6 E... 40 KT
06/0900H... 45.8 N 26.2 E... 40 KT
06/1500H... 46.4 N 25.7 E... 40 KT
06/2100H... 46.9 N 25.4 E... 35 KT
07/0300H... 47.6 N 25.2 E... 35 KT... NEAR LANDFALL
07/0900H... 48.4 N 25.2 E... 25 KT... DISSIPATING INLAND
07/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 45.3 NORTH 26.6 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT MAY 6.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0700 HPT MAY 6.
THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING
PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO.

FORECASTER JARVIS/HUNTER

TCTW03 FOLN 060345
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 0345 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0300 21460506
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           EHECATL
WARNING NR:         2
POSITION:           45.3N 26.6E
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 16KT
CENT PRES:          1000HPA
MAX WIND:           40KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR:          46.4N 25.7E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            0900 21460506=

TCLX1 LLWO 060400
LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 2 FOR SYSTEM 4603
SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL
ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
ISSUED AT 04:30 AM LST MAY 6 2145

ADVISORY NR 2
SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.
INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 06/0330 LST OR 3 AM HPT...
POSITION ACCURATE TO 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +45.3 LON +26.6.
MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE REMAIN 75 KM/H OR 40 KNOTS AND CURRENT
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA. MOVEMENT FORECAST IS
PROBLEMATIC... REFER TO RSC/HPC DISCUSSION TCAD3 HPCOR FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

WIND RADII ARE UNCHANGED SO DESPITE EPSILON MOVING AWAY FROM THE
ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE STILL ADVISED TO AVOID HIGH GROUND AND THE
SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SQUALLY GUSTS CAN REACH 110 KM/H
AT HIGH GROUND.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AS FOLLOWS...
COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTHERN ROCK (+45.1/+24.5) EAST AND
SOUTH TO CORNER BASE (+44.2/+24.9) INCLUDING SCHIMPOL.
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELLED.

FORECAST FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON...
EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO HUGE ERROR...
AT 06/0930H 45.8 NORTH 26.2 EAST WITHIN 45 NM. 40 KT 997 HPA.
AT 06/1530H 46.3 NORTH 25.8 EAST WITHIN 70 NM. 40 KT 997 HPA.

REPEAT REMARKS...
SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND BUT GUSTS OF
UP TO 110 KM/H POSSIBLE AT HIGH GROUND AND AT SEA. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED
TO AVOID THE SEA AND HIGH GROUND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 10:30 AM LST.
THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3
HPCOR.

FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN