Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"

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{{Fakehurricane}}
 
{{Fakehurricane}}
−
{{Active storm|name=Subtropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon)
+
{{Active storm|name=Severe Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon)
−
|category=storm|type=Subtropical storm
+
|category=intense|type=Severe tropical storm
−
|time=0300 HPT
+
|time=0900 HPT
 
|date=May 6
 
|date=May 6
 
|year=2146
 
|year=2146
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 45.3°N 26.6°E]<br/>About 1000 km (625 mi) west of Pearson Cliffs
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 45.8°N 26.7°E]<br/>About 385 km (240 mi) southwest of Borleai Defence, Gulp Mountain Peninsula
−
|winds=75 km/h (45 mph)
+
|winds=95 km/h (60 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
−
|pressure=1000 hPa
+
|pressure=990 hPa
−
|movement=West-northwest at 16 kt}}
+
|movement=North-northeast at 19 kt}}
 
----
 
----
−
  TCUP3 HPCOR 050840
+
  TCAD3 HPCOR 060940
−
  SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
+
  SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 003
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
−
  8:40 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 6:40 AM PAX TIME... 9:10 AM LOCAL TIME
+
  9 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...  
+
  ...EHECATL NOW A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM... HAS DEVIATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
−
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM EHECATL HAS
+
  TRACK...
−
REPORTED A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION OF A 993 HPA MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE. BASED
+
−
ON THIS INFORMATION... AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE STORM... EHECATL
+
−
  IS BEING UPGRADED TO A 50-KNOT... 95 KM/H... 60 MPH SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT SCHEDULED FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT MAY 6.
+
  THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA NOW MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND HAS
 +
LEFT A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING CURRENTS TO THE EAST OF EHECATL. WITH THE
 +
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER FROM THE MAINLAND... EHECATL
 +
SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING WITH A SHIFT EAST. THE OLD FORECAST TRACK IS NOW
 +
CONSIDERED OUTDATED AND UNLIKELY.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER JARVIS
+
  RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM. INITIAL
−
----
+
  INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM
−
  TCAD3 HPCOR 060345 CCA
+
  AFLE AND HDCW AS WELL AS A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION FROM AROUND 0830 HPT WHICH
−
SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 002... CORRECTED
+
  SUGGESTED A 993 HPA PRESSURE WITH 47 KT WINDS. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS
−
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
+
  OF STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SINCE THEN... ABOUT 58-62 KT... HAVE SET INITIAL
−
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
+
INTENSITY A BIT HIGHER THAN SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
−
  3 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME
+
 
   
 
   
−
  ...CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY TO INLUDE INTERMEDIATE WARNING...
+
  INITIAL MOTION IS BEST ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 025/19.
 
   
 
   
−
  EHECATL IS MOVING AS EXPECTED ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS NOW
+
  AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS
−
  ENCOUNTERING THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULP
+
  DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER
−
  MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.  
+
  EAST TO MOUNTAIN BAY. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY HAS ALSO INFORMED
 +
THE MSHPC THAT AT 9 AM HPT... ALL WARNINGS FOR LOX LAND ISLAND AND ITS WATERS HAVE
 +
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
   
 
   
−
  RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS DUE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AGAIN IN TWO HOURS'
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
−
  TIME. FOR NOW... EHECATL IS HELD AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS CONVECTIVE PULSES
+
PENINSULA FROM MOUNTAIN BAY EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE
−
NEAR THE CENTRE REMAIN INTERMITTENT... AND THERE ARE NO PERSISTENT AREAS OF
+
  POST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO THE EASTERN
−
  CONVECTION OVER THE APPARENT LLCC.
+
  EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST.
 
   
 
   
−
  0245 HPT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM T1.5... TO ST3.0. SINCE
+
  AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DECLARED
−
  THERE HAS BEEN NO APPARENT CHANGE IN STRUCTURE OF THE STORM... THERE IS NO
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA... NORTHWARD TO THE
−
CHANGE MADE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY... WHICH IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS. INITIAL
+
  STATE BORDER WITH THE NORTHEAST REGION.
−
  SIX HOUR MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 345/16.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM
−
  COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK SOUTH TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING
+
  INCLUDING THE CITY OF PEARSON CLIFFS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY
−
  SCHIMPOL AND TYSON. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... THIS WARNING
+
  ON THIS FORECAST TRACK.
−
COULD BE CANCELLED BY TODAY AFTERNOON.
+
 
   
 
   
−
AT 3 AM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
−
PENINSULA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO THE TOWN OF
+
  THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
−
DESINCO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
+
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
−
+
−
AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN
+
−
PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE
+
−
POST.
+
−
+
−
  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
+
−
  WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
+
−
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
 
  REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
 
  WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
  WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
   
 
   
−
THE LAND GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM
+
  AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
−
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WINDS FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOW BEEN
+
  LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.7 EAST... ABOUT 385 KM OR 240
−
CANCELLED.
+
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST.
−
+
 
−
  AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH
−
  LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.6 EAST... ABOUT 1000 KM OR 625
+
  HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
−
  MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS POPULARFREEDOM... OR ABOUT 675 KM OR 425 MILES
+
  OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH.
−
  NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
+
−
NEAR 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
+
−
HPA. THE RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST MOTION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS
+
−
DESCRIBED BELOW.
+
−
+
−
UP TO 135 MM... 5.3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER LOX LAND ISLAND IN THE NEXT
+
−
18 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 155 MM... 6.1 INCHES. A FURTHER 130 TO
+
−
  190 MM... 5.1 TO 7.5 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.
+
−
  LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULP MOUNTAINS.
+
−
+
−
NO CHANGE MADE TO WIND RADII FOR NOW... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
+
−
UP TO 420 KM... 260 MILES... FROM STORM CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
+
−
OF THE CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HIGH SOUTH OF THE GULPS.
+
  EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS
−
WHAT THIS DOES TO THE FORECAST TRACK IS UNCERTAIN. WHETHER THE HIGH WILL NOW WEAKEN
+
  FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN
−
FURTHER AND RETREAT... AND IF IT DOES WILL EHECATL FOLLOW THE HIGH OUT. FOR THE PAST
+
  12-24 HOURS.
−
SIX HOURS EHECATL HAS TRACKED ALONG STEERING CURRENTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
+
−
  PRESSURE GRADIENT. NOW THAT BOTH THE GRADIENT AND HIGH HAVE WEAKENED... THE FORECAST
+
−
  IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AND IN LOW CONFIDENCE.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  BASED ON CONTINUITY... AM FOLLOWING PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IS. AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...
+
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE
−
THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO HUGE ERRORS... DEPENDING ON THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SOUTH
+
  CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT...
−
  OF THE GULPS. BASED ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO
+
  WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY.
−
TRACK SLIGHTLY EAST OF WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. OVER THE
+
−
NEXT 12 HOURS EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TURN BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL
+
−
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT FOLENISAN DESERT BUILDS IN AND FORCES EHECATL
+
−
NORTHWARDS AND INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS
+
−
VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST... EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
+
−
AT AROUND 30 KM/H... 18 MPH. HOWEVER... IF THE FIRST SCENARIO VERIFIES...
+
−
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULP
+
−
  MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR.
+
  THE EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS 990 HPA.
−
BASED ON PREVIOUS FORECAST... NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR
+
−
SLIGHT FALLS IN PRESSURE AS IT UNDERGOES TROPICAL TRANSITION... BEFORE WEAKENING
+
−
CLOSE TO THE COAST. IF IT FOLLOWS THE HIGH OUT... THIS WILL BE WELL OFF AND IT
+
−
WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SOME FAVOURABLE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
+
−
12-24 HOURS IN THE NOLAN SOUND... BEFORE RAPID WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH... THE MODELS ARE RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE ON THIS ONE. UHWF
+
  BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP
−
INITIALISES THE WEAKENING HIGH MOVING OUT AND EHECATL MOVING OUT WITH IT... AND
+
  MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
−
  MAKES IT A 55-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. HDCW MEANWHILE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
+
  OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. AT LOWER
−
  CURRENT RSC/HPC FORECAST... MOVING WNW-WARDS BACK TOWARDS MAINLAND LIVERPOOL ENGLAND.
+
  ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
−
  DUE TO THE CURRENT SITUATION... NEITHER SCENARIO CAN BE RULED OUT RIGHT NOW.
+
OR AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
 
   
 
   
−
  IN THE BELOW FORECAST... ALL POINTS ARE SIX-HOURLY... AND ARE EXTREMELY LOW-CONFIDENCE.
+
  ALL MODELS ARE DISREGARDED AS THEY STILL SHOW THE STORM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST.
 +
FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS MOVING INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNDER
 +
INFLUENCE OF THE NOW-DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN
 +
SOUND... AS WELL AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
 +
IS EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH EHECATL'S WIND GUSTS COULD REACH WELL ABOVE HURRICANE
 +
STRENGTH.
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
−
  INITIAL TIME... 06/0300H
+
  INITIAL TIME... 06/0900H
−
   INITIAL... 45.3 N 26.6 E... 40 KT
+
   INITIAL... 45.8 N 26.7 E... 50 KT <!-- 06/1500H... 46.4 N 27.2 E... 50 KT -->
−
06/0900H... 45.8 N 26.2 E... 40 KT
+
  06/2100H... 46.7 N 27.4 E... 45 KT...NEAR LANDFALL <!-- 07/0300H... 47.5 N 27.7 E... 30 KT...INLAND -->
−
06/1500H... 46.4 N 25.7 E... 40 KT
+
  07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
−
  06/2100H... 46.9 N 25.4 E... 35 KT
+
  07/2100H...EXTRATROPICAL
−
07/0300H... 47.6 N 25.2 E... 35 KT... NEAR LANDFALL
+
−
  07/0900H... 48.4 N 25.2 E... 25 KT... DISSIPATING INLAND
+
−
  07/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND
+
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 45.3 NORTH 26.6 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
+
  REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 45.8 NORTH 26.7 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
−
  75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT.
+
  95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 19 KT.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT MAY 6.
+
  THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 6.
−
  AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0700 HPT MAY 6.
+
  AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 HPT MAY 6.
 
  THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING
 
  THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING
 
  PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO.
 
  PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER JARVIS/HUNTER
+
  FORECASTER HUNTER/RINDLI
 
----
 
----
−
  TCTW03 FOLN 060345
+
  TCTW03 FOLN 060945
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
−
  ISSUED 0345 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
+
  ISSUED 0945 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
−
  ACTIVE TIME:        0300 21460506
+
  ACTIVE TIME:        0900 21460506
 
  TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
 
  TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
 
  TROP CYC:          EHECATL
 
  TROP CYC:          EHECATL
−
  WARNING NR:        2
+
  WARNING NR:        3
−
  POSITION:          45.3N 26.6E
+
  POSITION:          45.8N 26.7E
 
  ACCURACY:          25NM
 
  ACCURACY:          25NM
−
  MOVEMENT:          WNW 16KT
+
  MOVEMENT:          ENE 19KT
−
  CENT PRES:          1000HPA
+
  CENT PRES:          990HPA
−
  MAX WIND:          40KT
+
  MAX WIND:          50KT
−
  MAX GUST:          50KT
+
  MAX GUST:          60KT
−
  FCST 12HR:          46.4N 25.7E
+
  FCST 12HR:          46.7N 27.4E
−
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
+
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
−
  NXT WRN:            0900 21460506=
+
  NXT WRN:            1500 21460506=
 
----
 
----
−
  TCLX1 LLWO 060400
+
  TCLX1 LLWO 061000
−
  LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 2 FOR SYSTEM 4603
+
  LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 3 FOR SYSTEM 4603
−
  SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL
+
  SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL
 
  LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL
 
  LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL
−
ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
+
  ISSUED AT 10:30 AM LST MAY 6 2145
−
  ISSUED AT 04:30 AM LST MAY 6 2145
+
 
   
 
   
−
  ADVISORY NR 2
+
  ADVISORY NR 3
−
  SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.
+
  TROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.
−
  INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 06/0330 LST OR 3 AM HPT...
+
  INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 06/0930 LST OR 9 AM HPT...
−
  POSITION ACCURATE TO 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +45.3 LON +26.6.
+
  POSITION ACCURATE TO 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +45.8 LON +26.7.
−
  MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE REMAIN 75 KM/H OR 40 KNOTS AND CURRENT
+
  MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE NEAR 95 KM/H OR 50 KNOTS AND CURRENT
−
  ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA. MOVEMENT FORECAST IS
+
  ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA. MOVEMENT FORECAST IS
−
  PROBLEMATIC... REFER TO RSC/HPC DISCUSSION TCAD3 HPCOR FOR MORE
+
  GENERALLY EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST... AROUND 35 KM/H.
−
INFORMATION.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  WIND RADII ARE UNCHANGED SO DESPITE EPSILON MOVING AWAY FROM THE
+
  EPSILON IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
−
ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE STILL ADVISED TO AVOID HIGH GROUND AND THE
+
  WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST FROM
−
  SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SQUALLY GUSTS CAN REACH 110 KM/H
+
  THE LLIWO.
−
  AT HIGH GROUND.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AS FOLLOWS...
+
  ALL LOX LAND ISLAND WATCHES ARE NOW CANCELLED.
−
COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTHERN ROCK (+45.1/+24.5) EAST AND
+
−
SOUTH TO CORNER BASE (+44.2/+24.9) INCLUDING SCHIMPOL.
+
−
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELLED.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECAST FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON...
+
  FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...
−
EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO HUGE ERROR...
+
  AT 06/1530H 46.7 NORTH 27.4 EAST WITHIN 40 NM. 45 KT 992 HPA.
−
  AT 06/0930H 45.8 NORTH 26.2 EAST WITHIN 45 NM. 40 KT 997 HPA.
+
  AT 06/2130H INLAND GULP MTN PN/OUTSIDE WARNING AREA.
−
  AT 06/1530H 46.3 NORTH 25.8 EAST WITHIN 70 NM. 40 KT 997 HPA.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  REPEAT REMARKS...
 
  REPEAT REMARKS...
−
  SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND BUT GUSTS OF
+
  TROPICAL STORM EPSILON EXITING FORECAST WARNING AREA... LANDFALL
−
UP TO 110 KM/H POSSIBLE AT HIGH GROUND AND AT SEA. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED
+
  ON GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.
−
  TO AVOID THE SEA AND HIGH GROUND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 10:30 AM LST.
+
  THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 4:30 PM LST.
 
  THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3
 
  THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3
 
  HPCOR.
 
  HPCOR.
 
   
 
   
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  FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN
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  FORECASTER NOBLE

Revision as of 23:49, 21 August 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.
Latest storm information
Severe Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon)
Severe tropical storm
As of: 0900 HPT May 6, 2146
Location: 45.8°N 26.7°E
About 385 km (240 mi) southwest of Borleai Defence, Gulp Mountain Peninsula
Maximum
winds: 		95 km/h (60 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 990 hPa
Movement: North-northeast at 19 kt
Past advisories and discussions available here 
TCAD3 HPCOR 060940
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME

...EHECATL NOW A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM... HAS DEVIATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK...

THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA NOW MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND HAS
LEFT A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING CURRENTS TO THE EAST OF EHECATL. WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER FROM THE MAINLAND... EHECATL
SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING WITH A SHIFT EAST. THE OLD FORECAST TRACK IS NOW
CONSIDERED OUTDATED AND UNLIKELY.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM. INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM
AFLE AND HDCW AS WELL AS A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION FROM AROUND 0830 HPT WHICH
SUGGESTED A 993 HPA PRESSURE WITH 47 KT WINDS. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS
OF STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SINCE THEN... ABOUT 58-62 KT... HAVE SET INITIAL
INTENSITY A BIT HIGHER THAN SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

INITIAL MOTION IS BEST ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 025/19.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER
EAST TO MOUNTAIN BAY. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY HAS ALSO INFORMED
THE MSHPC THAT AT 9 AM HPT... ALL WARNINGS FOR LOX LAND ISLAND AND ITS WATERS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA FROM MOUNTAIN BAY EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE
POST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DECLARED
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA... NORTHWARD TO THE
STATE BORDER WITH THE NORTHEAST REGION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM
INCLUDING THE CITY OF PEARSON CLIFFS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.7 EAST... ABOUT 385 KM OR 240
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH.

EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS
FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT...
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY.

THE EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS 990 HPA.

BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
OR AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL MODELS ARE DISREGARDED AS THEY STILL SHOW THE STORM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST.
FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS MOVING INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE NOW-DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN
SOUND... AS WELL AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION 
IS EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH EHECATL'S WIND GUSTS COULD REACH WELL ABOVE HURRICANE
STRENGTH.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 06/0900H
 INITIAL... 45.8 N 26.7 E... 50 KT 
06/2100H... 46.7 N 27.4 E... 45 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 
07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
07/2100H...EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 45.8 NORTH 26.7 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 19 KT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 6.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 HPT MAY 6.
THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING
PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO.

FORECASTER HUNTER/RINDLI

TCTW03 FOLN 060945
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 0945 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0900 21460506
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           EHECATL
WARNING NR:         3
POSITION:           45.8N 26.7E
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           ENE 19KT
CENT PRES:          990HPA
MAX WIND:           50KT
MAX GUST:           60KT
FCST 12HR:          46.7N 27.4E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
NXT WRN:            1500 21460506=

TCLX1 LLWO 061000
LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 3 FOR SYSTEM 4603
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL
ISSUED AT 10:30 AM LST MAY 6 2145

ADVISORY NR 3
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.
INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 06/0930 LST OR 9 AM HPT...
POSITION ACCURATE TO 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +45.8 LON +26.7.
MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE NEAR 95 KM/H OR 50 KNOTS AND CURRENT
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA. MOVEMENT FORECAST IS
GENERALLY EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST... AROUND 35 KM/H.

EPSILON IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST FROM
THE LLIWO.

ALL LOX LAND ISLAND WATCHES ARE NOW CANCELLED.

FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...
AT 06/1530H 46.7 NORTH 27.4 EAST WITHIN 40 NM. 45 KT 992 HPA.
AT 06/2130H INLAND GULP MTN PN/OUTSIDE WARNING AREA.

REPEAT REMARKS...
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON EXITING FORECAST WARNING AREA... LANDFALL
ON GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 4:30 PM LST.
THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3
HPCOR.

FORECASTER NOBLE
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