Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
Line 64: | Line 64: | ||
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.7 EAST... ABOUT 385 KM OR 240 | LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.7 EAST... ABOUT 385 KM OR 240 | ||
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. | MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. | ||
− | + | ||
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH | ||
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS | HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS |
Revision as of 23:50, 21 August 2007
Severe Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon) | |
---|---|
Severe tropical storm | |
As of: | 0900 HPT May 6, 2146 |
Location: | 45.8°N 26.7°E About 385 km (240 mi) southwest of Borleai Defence, Gulp Mountain Peninsula |
Maximum winds: |
95 km/h (60 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
Pressure: | 990 hPa |
Movement: | North-northeast at 19 kt |
Past advisories and discussions available here |
TCAD3 HPCOR 060940 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME ...EHECATL NOW A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM... HAS DEVIATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA NOW MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND HAS LEFT A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING CURRENTS TO THE EAST OF EHECATL. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER FROM THE MAINLAND... EHECATL SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING WITH A SHIFT EAST. THE OLD FORECAST TRACK IS NOW CONSIDERED OUTDATED AND UNLIKELY. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM AFLE AND HDCW AS WELL AS A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION FROM AROUND 0830 HPT WHICH SUGGESTED A 993 HPA PRESSURE WITH 47 KT WINDS. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SINCE THEN... ABOUT 58-62 KT... HAVE SET INITIAL INTENSITY A BIT HIGHER THAN SATELLITE ESTIMATES. INITIAL MOTION IS BEST ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 025/19. AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EAST TO MOUNTAIN BAY. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY HAS ALSO INFORMED THE MSHPC THAT AT 9 AM HPT... ALL WARNINGS FOR LOX LAND ISLAND AND ITS WATERS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM MOUNTAIN BAY EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DECLARED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA... NORTHWARD TO THE STATE BORDER WITH THE NORTHEAST REGION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM INCLUDING THE CITY OF PEARSON CLIFFS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY ON THIS FORECAST TRACK. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.7 EAST... ABOUT 385 KM OR 240 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH. EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. THE EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS 990 HPA. BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... OR AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALL MODELS ARE DISREGARDED AS THEY STILL SHOW THE STORM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST. FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS MOVING INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE NOW-DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND... AS WELL AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH EHECATL'S WIND GUSTS COULD REACH WELL ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 06/0900H INITIAL... 45.8 N 26.7 E... 50 KT 06/2100H... 46.7 N 27.4 E... 45 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 07/2100H...EXTRATROPICAL REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 45.8 NORTH 26.7 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 19 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 6. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 HPT MAY 6. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO. FORECASTER HUNTER/RINDLI
TCTW03 FOLN 060945 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 0945 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 0900 21460506 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: EHECATL WARNING NR: 3 POSITION: 45.8N 26.7E ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: ENE 19KT CENT PRES: 990HPA MAX WIND: 50KT MAX GUST: 60KT FCST 12HR: 46.7N 27.4E FCST 12HR WINDS: 45KT G55KT NXT WRN: 1500 21460506=
TCLX1 LLWO 061000 LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 3 FOR SYSTEM 4603 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL ISSUED AT 10:30 AM LST MAY 6 2145 ADVISORY NR 3 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 06/0930 LST OR 9 AM HPT... POSITION ACCURATE TO 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +45.8 LON +26.7. MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE NEAR 95 KM/H OR 50 KNOTS AND CURRENT ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA. MOVEMENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST... AROUND 35 KM/H. EPSILON IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST FROM THE LLIWO. ALL LOX LAND ISLAND WATCHES ARE NOW CANCELLED. FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM EPSILON... AT 06/1530H 46.7 NORTH 27.4 EAST WITHIN 40 NM. 45 KT 992 HPA. AT 06/2130H INLAND GULP MTN PN/OUTSIDE WARNING AREA. REPEAT REMARKS... TROPICAL STORM EPSILON EXITING FORECAST WARNING AREA... LANDFALL ON GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 4:30 PM LST. THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3 HPCOR. FORECASTER NOBLE