Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"
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|movement=North-northeast at 19 kt}} | |movement=North-northeast at 19 kt}} | ||
---- | ---- | ||
− | TCUP3 HPCOR | + | TCUP3 HPCOR 061405 |
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE | SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE | ||
[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
[[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | ||
− | + | 2 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 12 PM PAX TIME... 2:30 PM LOCAL TIME | |
− | + | TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... | |
− | HAS BEEN | + | AN AVALANCHE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE GULP MOUNTAINS RELATED TO ACCUMULATED |
− | + | SNOWFALL FROM PRECIPITATION FROM EHECATL. REFER TO GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA | |
− | + | SERVICE WEATHER CENTRE FOR LATEST INFORMATION. | |
− | THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST TO THE NORTHEAST REGION STATE | + | AS OF 2 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST NORTHWARD |
− | + | TO THE NORTHEAST REGION STATE LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. | |
FORECASTER JARVIS | FORECASTER JARVIS | ||
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[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
[[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | ||
− | 12 PM HPT MAY | + | 12 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 10 AM PAX TIME... 12:30 PM LOCAL TIME |
...EHECATL STILL ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL NEAR/OVER BORLEAI DEFENCE POST... | ...EHECATL STILL ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL NEAR/OVER BORLEAI DEFENCE POST... | ||
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[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
[[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | ||
− | 9 AM HPT MAY | + | 9 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME |
...EHECATL NOW A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM... HAS DEVIATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST | ...EHECATL NOW A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM... HAS DEVIATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST | ||
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NXT WRN: 1500 21460506= | NXT WRN: 1500 21460506= | ||
---- | ---- | ||
− | WXTC01 KBDP | + | WXTC01 KBDP 061420 |
− | TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER ONE | + | TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...UPDATE |
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING BULLETIN | INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING BULLETIN | ||
− | AVALANCHE | + | AVALANCHE ADVISORY BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...SUPERSEDES AVALANCHE WATCH |
− | FLASH FLOOD WARNING BULLETIN NUMBER ONE | + | FLASH FLOOD WARNING BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...UPDATE |
+ | SLEET WARNING BULLETIN NUMBER ONE | ||
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL | BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL | ||
ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA | ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA | ||
− | ISSUED AT | + | ISSUED AT 2:50 PM LOCAL TIME... 1420 HPT MAY 6 2146 |
IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA | IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA | ||
− | ... | + | UPDATE... |
+ | THIS BULLETIN SUPERSEDES THE AVALANCHE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. | ||
+ | A SLEET WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN GULPS. | ||
+ | AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL GULP MOUNTAINS. | ||
− | ... | + | AN AVALANCHE WAS REPORTED AROUND 1355 LOCAL TIME... AND CONFIRMED BY |
− | + | MET SERVICE PERSONNEL... NEAR THE MIDDLE GULP RANGE. NO CONFIRMED DEATHS | |
− | ... | + | OR INJURIES... WITH LIGHT DAMAGE TO SMALL SUMMER HOUSES... MOSTLY |
− | + | CONFINED TO ROOFS AND CHIMNEYS. | |
− | + | ||
+ | AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE AVALANCHE WATCH UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7. | ||
+ | AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY INDICATES THAT AN AVALANCHE HAS OCCURRED... AND FURTHER | ||
+ | AVALANCHES MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID | ||
+ | ALL MOUNTAINS... NO MATTER HOW SHORT... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING | ||
+ | CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. | ||
+ | |||
+ | THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE STATE LINE EASTWARDS TO VALLEY EAST | ||
+ | HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. | ||
+ | |||
+ | A SLEET WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE | ||
+ | FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. PREVIOUS WARNINGS... EXCEPT FOR THE | ||
+ | AVALANCHE WATCH... AND COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH... REMAIN IN EFFECT... | ||
+ | |||
+ | PREVIOUS BULLETIN... | ||
THE PASSAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED | THE PASSAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED | ||
TO CAUSE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULPS. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS WILL | TO CAUSE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULPS. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS WILL | ||
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POINT EAST... A COASTAL HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. | POINT EAST... A COASTAL HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. | ||
− | A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT | + | A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM VALLEY EAST EASTWARDS TO |
− | + | BORLEAI POINT EAST. | |
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE EASTERN GULP | AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE EASTERN GULP | ||
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ALREADY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WARNING IS EFFECTIVE FOR | ALREADY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WARNING IS EFFECTIVE FOR | ||
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. | THE NEXT 12 HOURS. | ||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS... BELOW 400 M... | A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS... BELOW 400 M... | ||
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DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE. THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM | DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE. THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM | ||
− | CAN CARRY DEADLY DEBRIS. IF IN AN AVALANCHE | + | CAN CARRY DEADLY DEBRIS. IF IN AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS |
AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR | AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR | ||
− | AN AVALANCHE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY SO | + | AN AVALANCHE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY SO A NEW AVALANCHE ADVISORY CAN BE ISSUED. |
IF IN LOW-LYING AREAS... PREPARE TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE SHOULD FLOODING | IF IN LOW-LYING AREAS... PREPARE TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE SHOULD FLOODING | ||
− | BE A PROBLEM | + | BE A PROBLEM. |
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
REPEAT... | REPEAT... | ||
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TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FOR GUSTS AS STRONG | TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FOR GUSTS AS STRONG | ||
AS 100 KT AT HIGH ELEVATIONS... IS IN EFFECT. AVALANCHES ARE POSSIBLE DUE | AS 100 KT AT HIGH ELEVATIONS... IS IN EFFECT. AVALANCHES ARE POSSIBLE DUE | ||
− | TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR ONE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY. | + | TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION... AND ONE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR |
− | + | ONE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY. LOW-LYING AREAS MAY BE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING | |
− | + | IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. | |
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 7:30 PM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN | THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 7:30 PM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN |
Revision as of 02:26, 25 August 2007
Severe Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon) | |
---|---|
Severe tropical storm | |
As of: | 0900 HPT May 6, 2146 |
Location: | 45.8°N 26.7°E About 385 km (240 mi) southwest of Borleai Defence, Gulp Mountain Peninsula |
Maximum winds: |
95 km/h (60 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
Pressure: | 990 hPa |
Movement: | North-northeast at 19 kt |
Past advisories and discussions available here |
TCUP3 HPCOR 061405 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 2 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 12 PM PAX TIME... 2:30 PM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... AN AVALANCHE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE GULP MOUNTAINS RELATED TO ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL FROM PRECIPITATION FROM EHECATL. REFER TO GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA SERVICE WEATHER CENTRE FOR LATEST INFORMATION. AS OF 2 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST REGION STATE LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FORECASTER JARVIS
TCIA3 HPCOR 061225 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 3A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 12 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 10 AM PAX TIME... 12:30 PM LOCAL TIME ...EHECATL STILL ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL NEAR/OVER BORLEAI DEFENCE POST... AT 12 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHWEST POPULARFREEDOM IS BEING DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED LIKELY FOR THE AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM MOUNTAIN BAY EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST... THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI POST... AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... FROM THE NORTHEAST REGION STATE LINE SOUTH TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENTLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE. IN THIS CASE... A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 12 TO 24 HOURS... OR HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN 24 HOURS. AT 12 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.9 EAST... ABOUT 320 KM OR 200 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF BORLEAI POINT WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... POSSIBLY TO HURRICANE FORCE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE GULP MOUNTAINS. EHECATL REMAINS ON A GENERALLY NORTHEAST-BY-NORTH TRACK NEAR 35 KM/H OR 22 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... EHECATL WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR OR OVER THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WITHIN 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECENTLY RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 KM/H... 42 MPH... AND A GUST TO 105 KM/H... 65 MPH. AN AFLE/AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA... 29.24 INCHES OF MERCURY... 74.26 CM HG. BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO ONE INCH HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE LAST THREE HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 8 INCHES. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... OR AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REPEATING THE 12 PM POSITION... 46.1 NORTH 26.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST- BY-NORTH AT 19 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 6. FORECASTER TIMMS/JARVIS
TCAD3 HPCOR 060940 CCA SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 3 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME ...EHECATL NOW A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM... HAS DEVIATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA NOW MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND HAS LEFT A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING CURRENTS TO THE EAST OF EHECATL. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER FROM THE MAINLAND... EHECATL SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING WITH A SHIFT EAST. THE OLD FORECAST TRACK IS NOW CONSIDERED OUTDATED AND UNLIKELY. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM AFLE AND HDCW AS WELL AS A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION FROM AROUND 0830 HPT WHICH SUGGESTED A 993 HPA PRESSURE WITH 47 KT WINDS. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SINCE THEN... ABOUT 58-62 KT... HAVE SET INITIAL INTENSITY A BIT HIGHER THAN SATELLITE ESTIMATES. INITIAL MOTION IS BEST ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 025/19. AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EAST TO MOUNTAIN BAY. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY HAS ALSO INFORMED THE MSHPC THAT AT 9 AM HPT... ALL WARNINGS FOR LOX LAND ISLAND AND ITS WATERS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM MOUNTAIN BAY EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DECLARED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA... NORTHWARD TO THE STATE BORDER WITH THE NORTHEAST REGION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM INCLUDING THE CITY OF PEARSON CLIFFS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY ON THIS FORECAST TRACK. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.7 EAST... ABOUT 385 KM OR 240 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH. EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. THE EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS 990 HPA. BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... OR AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALL MODELS ARE DISREGARDED AS THEY STILL SHOW THE STORM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST. FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS MOVING INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE NOW-DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND... AS WELL AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH EHECATL'S WIND GUSTS COULD REACH WELL ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 06/0900H INITIAL... 45.8 N 26.7 E... 50 KT 06/2100H... 46.7 N 27.4 E... 45 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 07/2100H...EXTRATROPICAL REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 45.8 NORTH 26.7 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 19 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 6. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 HPT MAY 6. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO. FORECASTER HUNTER/RINDLI
TCTW03 FOLN 060945 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 0945 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 0900 21460506 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: EHECATL WARNING NR: 3 POSITION: 45.8N 26.7E ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: ENE 19KT CENT PRES: 990HPA MAX WIND: 50KT MAX GUST: 60KT FCST 12HR: 46.7N 27.4E FCST 12HR WINDS: 45KT G55KT NXT WRN: 1500 21460506=
WXTC01 KBDP 061420 TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...UPDATE INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING BULLETIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...SUPERSEDES AVALANCHE WATCH FLASH FLOOD WARNING BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...UPDATE SLEET WARNING BULLETIN NUMBER ONE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA ISSUED AT 2:50 PM LOCAL TIME... 1420 HPT MAY 6 2146 IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UPDATE... THIS BULLETIN SUPERSEDES THE AVALANCHE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. A SLEET WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN GULPS. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL GULP MOUNTAINS. AN AVALANCHE WAS REPORTED AROUND 1355 LOCAL TIME... AND CONFIRMED BY MET SERVICE PERSONNEL... NEAR THE MIDDLE GULP RANGE. NO CONFIRMED DEATHS OR INJURIES... WITH LIGHT DAMAGE TO SMALL SUMMER HOUSES... MOSTLY CONFINED TO ROOFS AND CHIMNEYS. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE AVALANCHE WATCH UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY INDICATES THAT AN AVALANCHE HAS OCCURRED... AND FURTHER AVALANCHES MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS... NO MATTER HOW SHORT... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE STATE LINE EASTWARDS TO VALLEY EAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A SLEET WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. PREVIOUS WARNINGS... EXCEPT FOR THE AVALANCHE WATCH... AND COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH... REMAIN IN EFFECT... PREVIOUS BULLETIN... THE PASSAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULPS. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW... AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS RAIN OR SLEET. A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST... A COASTAL HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM VALLEY EAST EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE EASTERN GULP MOUNTAINS. WINDS... ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... WILL CONSISTENTLY GUST TO WELL ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH... AT TIMES REACHING UP TO 180 KM/H. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 95 KM/H IS POSSIBLE. THE STORM HAS A LARGE WIND RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... AND IS ALREADY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WARNING IS EFFECTIVE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS... BELOW 400 M... ACROSS THE PENINSULA. UP TO 255 MM... TEN INCHES... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. MELTING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE. THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM CAN CARRY DEADLY DEBRIS. IF IN AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR AN AVALANCHE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY SO A NEW AVALANCHE ADVISORY CAN BE ISSUED. IF IN LOW-LYING AREAS... PREPARE TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE SHOULD FLOODING BE A PROBLEM. REPEAT... TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WILL BRING SEVERE WEATHER EFFECTS TO THE PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FOR GUSTS AS STRONG AS 100 KT AT HIGH ELEVATIONS... IS IN EFFECT. AVALANCHES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION... AND ONE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR ONE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY. LOW-LYING AREAS MAY BE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 7:30 PM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS. SWC MTN