Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
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| − | + | TCAD3 HPCOR 061540 | |
| − | SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) | + | SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 4 |
[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
[[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | ||
| − | + | 3 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME | |
| − | + | ...SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL REMAINS ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL SOON... | |
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| − | + | THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO... WITH ANOTHER | |
| − | TO THE | + | FLIGHT DUE IN IN ABOUT AN HOUR. THE HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS FOUND DURING THAT FLIGHT |
| + | WERE UP TO 65 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL... WHILE A MANUAL DROPSONDE READING RECORDED | ||
| + | 49 KT WINDS AT AROUND 1245 HPT WHEN THE PLANE WAS ABOUT TO LEAVE THE STORM. | ||
| + | NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE | ||
| + | ... AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW CLEAR 50-KNOT WIND VECTORS. INITIAL INTENSITY | ||
| + | IS RETAINED AT 50 KT. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE NORTHEASTWARDS... | ||
| + | SO 045/35. SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT COULD BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OR EAST. | ||
| − | + | A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST FROM | |
| − | + | DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR | |
| − | + | THIS STRETCH OF COAST. | |
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| − | + | A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA COAST FROM | |
| + | MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST SOUTHWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. | ||
| − | + | REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND | |
| − | + | WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | |
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| − | + | AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE | |
| − | + | LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.2 EAST... ABOUT 225 KM OR 140 | |
| − | + | MILES SOUTH OF BORLEAI POINT WEST. | |
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| − | + | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE NEAR 95 KM/H... | |
| − | + | 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER | |
| − | + | ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH. | |
| − | + | GENERAL 24-HOUR TRENDS SUGGEST EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT | |
| − | + | 35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE | |
| − | + | GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 9 HOURS. | |
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TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE | ||
CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... | CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... | ||
| − | WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST AT BORLEAI POINT | + | WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. AT AROUND 1140 HPT... AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST |
| − | + | AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 KM/H... | |
| − | + | 42 MPH... AND A GUST TO 105 KM/H... 65 MPH. | |
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| − | MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE | + | THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT |
| + | WAS 990 HPA. | ||
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| + | BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER | ||
| + | THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM | ||
| + | OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. | ||
| + | BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO 45 MM FELL IN THE | ||
| + | LAST SIX HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 180 MM... 7 INCHES. | ||
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AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND | AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND | ||
| − | MUDSLIDES... | + | MUDSLIDES... AND AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN AVALANCHE WAS CONFIRMED |
| − | + | TO HAVE OCCURRED AROUND 1348 LOCAL TIME... 1318 HPT... EARLIER TODAY. | |
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| − | + | THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. | |
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OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT | OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT | ||
| − | INITIAL TIME... 06/ | + | INITIAL TIME... 06/1500H |
| − | INITIAL... | + | INITIAL... 46.4 N 27.2 E... 50 KT <!-- 06/2100H... 46.7 N 27.4 E... 45 KT...NEAR LANDFALL --> |
| − | + | 07/0300H... 47.5 N 27.7 E... 30 KT...INLAND <!-- 07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --> | |
| − | 07/ | + | 07/1500H... 48.6 N 29.4 E... 30 KT... BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL |
| − | + | 08/0300H...EXTRATROPICAL | |
| − | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 46.4 NORTH 27.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR |
| − | 95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING | + | 95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT. |
| − | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY | + | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT MAY 6. |
| − | AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY | + | AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1900 HPT MAY 6. |
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| − | FORECASTER | + | FORECASTER RINDLI |
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| − | TCTW03 FOLN | + | TCTW03 FOLN 061545 |
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | ||
| − | ISSUED | + | ISSUED 1545 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ |
| − | ACTIVE TIME: | + | ACTIVE TIME: 1500 21460506 |
TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN | TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN | ||
TROP CYC: EHECATL | TROP CYC: EHECATL | ||
| − | WARNING NR: | + | WARNING NR: 4 |
| − | POSITION: | + | POSITION: 46.4N 27.2E |
ACCURACY: 25NM | ACCURACY: 25NM | ||
| − | MOVEMENT: | + | MOVEMENT: NE 19KT |
CENT PRES: 990HPA | CENT PRES: 990HPA | ||
MAX WIND: 50KT | MAX WIND: 50KT | ||
MAX GUST: 60KT | MAX GUST: 60KT | ||
| − | FCST 12HR: | + | FCST 12HR: 47.5N 27.7E...INLAND |
| − | FCST 12HR WINDS: | + | FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT GUSTS VARIABLE |
| − | NXT WRN: | + | NXT WRN: 2100 21460506= |
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WXTC01 KBDP 061420 | WXTC01 KBDP 061420 | ||
Revision as of 11:42, 25 August 2007
|
ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. |
| Severe Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon) | |
|---|---|
| Severe tropical storm | |
| As of: | 0900 HPT May 6, 2146 |
| Location: | 45.8°N 26.7°E About 385 km (240 mi) southwest of Borleai Defence, Gulp Mountain Peninsula |
| Maximum winds: |
95 km/h (60 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 990 hPa |
| Movement: | North-northeast at 19 kt |
| Past advisories and discussions available here | |
TCAD3 HPCOR 061540 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 4 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME ...SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL REMAINS ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL SOON... THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO... WITH ANOTHER FLIGHT DUE IN IN ABOUT AN HOUR. THE HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS FOUND DURING THAT FLIGHT WERE UP TO 65 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL... WHILE A MANUAL DROPSONDE READING RECORDED 49 KT WINDS AT AROUND 1245 HPT WHEN THE PLANE WAS ABOUT TO LEAVE THE STORM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE ... AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW CLEAR 50-KNOT WIND VECTORS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS RETAINED AT 50 KT. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE NORTHEASTWARDS... SO 045/35. SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT COULD BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OR EAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THIS STRETCH OF COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA COAST FROM MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST SOUTHWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.2 EAST... ABOUT 225 KM OR 140 MILES SOUTH OF BORLEAI POINT WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH. GENERAL 24-HOUR TRENDS SUGGEST EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 9 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. AT AROUND 1140 HPT... AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 KM/H... 42 MPH... AND A GUST TO 105 KM/H... 65 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 HPA. BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO 45 MM FELL IN THE LAST SIX HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 180 MM... 7 INCHES. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... AND AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN AVALANCHE WAS CONFIRMED TO HAVE OCCURRED AROUND 1348 LOCAL TIME... 1318 HPT... EARLIER TODAY. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 06/1500H INITIAL... 46.4 N 27.2 E... 50 KT 07/0300H... 47.5 N 27.7 E... 30 KT...INLAND 07/1500H... 48.6 N 29.4 E... 30 KT... BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 08/0300H...EXTRATROPICAL REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 46.4 NORTH 27.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT MAY 6. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1900 HPT MAY 6. FORECASTER RINDLI
TCTW03 FOLN 061545 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 1545 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 1500 21460506 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: EHECATL WARNING NR: 4 POSITION: 46.4N 27.2E ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: NE 19KT CENT PRES: 990HPA MAX WIND: 50KT MAX GUST: 60KT FCST 12HR: 47.5N 27.7E...INLAND FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT GUSTS VARIABLE NXT WRN: 2100 21460506=
WXTC01 KBDP 061420 TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...UPDATE INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING BULLETIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...SUPERSEDES AVALANCHE WATCH FLASH FLOOD WARNING BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...UPDATE SLEET WARNING BULLETIN NUMBER ONE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA ISSUED AT 2:50 PM LOCAL TIME... 1420 HPT MAY 6 2146 IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UPDATE... THIS BULLETIN SUPERSEDES THE AVALANCHE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. A SLEET WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN GULPS. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL GULP MOUNTAINS. AN AVALANCHE WAS REPORTED AROUND 1355 LOCAL TIME... AND CONFIRMED BY MET SERVICE PERSONNEL... NEAR THE MIDDLE GULP RANGE. NO CONFIRMED DEATHS OR INJURIES... WITH LIGHT DAMAGE TO SMALL SUMMER HOUSES... MOSTLY CONFINED TO ROOFS AND CHIMNEYS. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE AVALANCHE WATCH UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY INDICATES THAT AN AVALANCHE HAS OCCURRED... AND FURTHER AVALANCHES MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS... NO MATTER HOW SHORT... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE STATE LINE EASTWARDS TO VALLEY EAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A SLEET WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. PREVIOUS WARNINGS... EXCEPT FOR THE AVALANCHE WATCH... AND COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH... REMAIN IN EFFECT... PREVIOUS BULLETIN... THE PASSAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULPS. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW... AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS RAIN OR SLEET. A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST... A COASTAL HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM VALLEY EAST EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE EASTERN GULP MOUNTAINS. WINDS... ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... WILL CONSISTENTLY GUST TO WELL ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH... AT TIMES REACHING UP TO 180 KM/H. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 95 KM/H IS POSSIBLE. THE STORM HAS A LARGE WIND RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... AND IS ALREADY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WARNING IS EFFECTIVE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS... BELOW 400 M... ACROSS THE PENINSULA. UP TO 255 MM... TEN INCHES... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. MELTING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE. THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM CAN CARRY DEADLY DEBRIS. IF IN AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR AN AVALANCHE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY SO A NEW AVALANCHE ADVISORY CAN BE ISSUED. IF IN LOW-LYING AREAS... PREPARE TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE SHOULD FLOODING BE A PROBLEM. REPEAT... TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WILL BRING SEVERE WEATHER EFFECTS TO THE PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FOR GUSTS AS STRONG AS 100 KT AT HIGH ELEVATIONS... IS IN EFFECT. AVALANCHES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION... AND ONE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR ONE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY. LOW-LYING AREAS MAY BE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 7:30 PM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS. SWC MTN
