Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"

Revision as of 11:48, 25 August 2007

ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.

TCAD3 HPCOR 061540 CCA
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 4...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME

...CORRECTED INITIAL 24 HOUR MOTION VECTOR TO 19 KT FROM 35 KT...

...SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL REMAINS ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL SOON...

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO... WITH ANOTHER
FLIGHT DUE IN IN ABOUT AN HOUR. THE HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS FOUND DURING THAT FLIGHT
WERE UP TO 65 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL... WHILE A MANUAL DROPSONDE READING RECORDED
49 KT WINDS AT AROUND 1245 HPT WHEN THE PLANE WAS ABOUT TO LEAVE THE STORM.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE
... AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW CLEAR 50-KNOT WIND VECTORS. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RETAINED AT 50 KT. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE NORTHEASTWARDS...
SO 045/19. SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT COULD BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OR EAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST FROM
DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THIS STRETCH OF COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA COAST FROM
MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST SOUTHWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST.

REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.2 EAST... ABOUT 225 KM OR 140
MILES SOUTH OF BORLEAI POINT WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE NEAR 95 KM/H...
60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH.

GENERAL 24-HOUR TRENDS SUGGEST EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE
GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 9 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT...
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. AT AROUND 1140 HPT... AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST
AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 KM/H...
42 MPH... AND A GUST TO 105 KM/H... 65 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 990 HPA.

BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE.
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO 45 MM FELL IN THE
LAST SIX HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 180 MM... 7 INCHES.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES... AND AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN AVALANCHE WAS CONFIRMED
TO HAVE OCCURRED AROUND 1348 LOCAL TIME... 1318 HPT... EARLIER TODAY.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 06/1500H
 INITIAL... 46.4 N 27.2 E... 50 KT 
07/0300H... 47.5 N 27.7 E... 30 KT...INLAND 
07/1500H... 48.6 N 29.4 E... 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
08/0300H...EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 46.4 NORTH 27.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT MAY 6.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1900 HPT MAY 6.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW03 FOLN 061545
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 1545 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        1500 21460506
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           EHECATL
WARNING NR:         4
POSITION:           46.4N 27.2E
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 19KT
CENT PRES:          990HPA
MAX WIND:           50KT
MAX GUST:           60KT
FCST 12HR:          47.5N 27.7E...INLAND
FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT GUSTS VARIABLE
NXT WRN:            2100 21460506=

WXTC01 KBDP 061420
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...UPDATE
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING BULLETIN
AVALANCHE ADVISORY BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...SUPERSEDES AVALANCHE WATCH
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...UPDATE
SLEET WARNING BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL
ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
ISSUED AT 2:50 PM LOCAL TIME... 1420 HPT MAY 6 2146
IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA

UPDATE...
THIS BULLETIN SUPERSEDES THE AVALANCHE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.
A SLEET WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN GULPS.
AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL GULP MOUNTAINS.

AN AVALANCHE WAS REPORTED AROUND 1355 LOCAL TIME... AND CONFIRMED BY
MET SERVICE PERSONNEL... NEAR THE MIDDLE GULP RANGE. NO CONFIRMED DEATHS
OR INJURIES... WITH LIGHT DAMAGE TO SMALL SUMMER HOUSES... MOSTLY
CONFINED TO ROOFS AND CHIMNEYS.

AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE AVALANCHE WATCH UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7.
AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY INDICATES THAT AN AVALANCHE HAS OCCURRED... AND FURTHER
AVALANCHES MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID
ALL MOUNTAINS... NO MATTER HOW SHORT... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING
CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE.

THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE STATE LINE EASTWARDS TO VALLEY EAST
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A SLEET WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE
FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. PREVIOUS WARNINGS... EXCEPT FOR THE
AVALANCHE WATCH... AND COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH... REMAIN IN EFFECT... 

PREVIOUS BULLETIN...
THE PASSAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULPS. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS WILL
FALL AS SNOW... AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS RAIN OR SLEET.

A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI
POINT EAST... A COASTAL HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM VALLEY EAST EASTWARDS TO
BORLEAI POINT EAST.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE EASTERN GULP
MOUNTAINS. WINDS... ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... WILL CONSISTENTLY
GUST TO WELL ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH... AT TIMES REACHING UP TO 180 KM/H.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 95 KM/H IS POSSIBLE. THE
STORM HAS A LARGE WIND RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... AND IS
ALREADY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WARNING IS EFFECTIVE FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS... BELOW 400 M...
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. UP TO 255 MM... TEN INCHES... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. MELTING SNOW
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE. THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM
CAN CARRY DEADLY DEBRIS. IF IN AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS
AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR
AN AVALANCHE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY SO A NEW AVALANCHE ADVISORY CAN BE ISSUED.
IF IN LOW-LYING AREAS... PREPARE TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE SHOULD FLOODING
BE A PROBLEM. 

REPEAT...
TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WILL BRING SEVERE WEATHER EFFECTS TO THE PENINSULA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FOR GUSTS AS STRONG
AS 100 KT AT HIGH ELEVATIONS... IS IN EFFECT. AVALANCHES ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION... AND ONE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR
ONE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY. LOW-LYING AREAS MAY BE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 7:30 PM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN
THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS.

SWC MTN