Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"

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ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.

TCUP3 WHCO 062105
TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME

...TROPICAL STORM EHECATL MAKES LANDFALL EAST OF BORLEAI POINT WEST...

REPORTS FROM THE GROUND AT THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL
STORM EHECATL MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 10 TO 15 MINUTES AGO NEAR BORLEAI POINT
WEST... AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE
INLAND OVER THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR 46.9 N 27.6 E. THIS POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM FORECAST STORM MOVEMENT AND GROUND REPORTS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. THERE IS ALSO
A HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT... OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY OVER LAND AS
IT STARTS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY BEING PREPARED WITH THE LATEST
INFORMATION... AND WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 10 PM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

TCIA3 WHCO 061835
TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 4A
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
6 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME... 6:30 PM LOCAL TIME

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SYSTEM FINDS WEAKER STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST.

AT 6 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 6 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.4 EAST... ABOUT 130 KM OR 80
MILES SOUTH OF BORLEAI POINT WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE NEAR 85 KM/H...
50 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS.

EHECATL IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... WITH AN EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION EXPECTED IN AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS. ON THIS CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 6 HOURS... OR AS SOON AS BY THE NEXT
ADVISORY.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 KM... 215 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM. AT AROUND 1805 HPT... AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST
AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 79 KM/H...
49 MPH... AND A GUST TO 109 KM/H... 68 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 992 HPA.

BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE.
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO 75 MM HAS FALLEN IN THE
LAST NINE HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 200 MM... 8 INCHES.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES... AND AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONE MINOR AVALANCHE WAS REPORTED
IN THE GULPS EARLIER TODAY... TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.

REPEAT 6 PM HPT POSITION... 46.6 N 27.4 E... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS 992 HPA... AND EHECATL IS MOVING GENERALLY
NORTHEAST. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS.

THIS IS THE FINAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:40 PM HPT. A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... UNDER HEADER
TCUP3 WHCO... WILL BE ISSUED UPON LANDFALL.

FORECASTER HUNTER

TCAD3 HPCOR 061540 CCA
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 4...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME

...CORRECTED INITIAL 24 HOUR MOTION VECTOR TO 19 KT FROM 35 KT...

...SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL REMAINS ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL SOON...

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO... WITH ANOTHER
FLIGHT DUE IN IN ABOUT AN HOUR. THE HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS FOUND DURING THAT FLIGHT
WERE UP TO 65 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL... WHILE A MANUAL DROPSONDE READING RECORDED
49 KT WINDS AT AROUND 1245 HPT WHEN THE PLANE WAS ABOUT TO LEAVE THE STORM.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE
... AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW CLEAR 50-KNOT WIND VECTORS. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RETAINED AT 50 KT. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE NORTHEASTWARDS...
SO 045/19. SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT COULD BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OR EAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST FROM
DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THIS STRETCH OF COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA COAST FROM
MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST SOUTHWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST.

REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.2 EAST... ABOUT 225 KM OR 140
MILES SOUTH OF BORLEAI POINT WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE NEAR 95 KM/H...
60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH.

GENERAL 24-HOUR TRENDS SUGGEST EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE
GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 9 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT...
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. AT AROUND 1140 HPT... AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST
AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 KM/H...
42 MPH... AND A GUST TO 105 KM/H... 65 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 990 HPA.

BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE.
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO 45 MM FELL IN THE
LAST SIX HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 180 MM... 7 INCHES.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES... AND AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN AVALANCHE WAS CONFIRMED
TO HAVE OCCURRED AROUND 1348 LOCAL TIME... 1318 HPT... EARLIER TODAY.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 06/1500H
 INITIAL... 46.4 N 27.2 E... 50 KT 
07/0300H... 47.5 N 27.7 E... 30 KT...INLAND 
07/1500H... 48.6 N 29.4 E... 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
08/0300H...EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 46.4 NORTH 27.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT MAY 6.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1900 HPT MAY 6.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW03 FOLN 061545
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 1545 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        1500 21460506
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           EHECATL
WARNING NR:         4
POSITION:           46.4N 27.2E
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 19KT
CENT PRES:          990HPA
MAX WIND:           50KT
MAX GUST:           60KT
FCST 12HR:          47.5N 27.7E...INLAND
FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT GUSTS VARIABLE
NXT WRN:            2100 21460506=

WXTC01 KBDP 061850
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER TWO
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL
CC MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
ISSUED AT 7:20 PM LOCAL TIME... 1850 HPT MAY 6 2146
IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA

CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES...
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7
AVALANCHE ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7
FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7
SLEET WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7

INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FLASH FLOOD WARNING... AND SLEET WARNING
ALL EXTENDED TO 7:30 AM LOCAL TIME TOMORROW... AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:30 PM TOMORROW...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BORLEAI POINT EAST NORTH TO VALLEY EAST
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. GUSTS FROM TROPICAL STORM
EHECATL TO WELL ABOVE 65 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. UP TO 255 MM... OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... WILL FALL ACROSS
THE EASTERN PENINSULA. MELTING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. IF IN A WARNING AREA... BE READY
TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE IF NECESSARY.

AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. AN AVALANCHE OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY...
WITH NO CASUALTIES AND LIGHT DAMAGE... BUT FURTHER AVALANCHES COULD OCCUR
AT ANY TIME. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS...
NO MATTER HOW HIGH... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE.

A SLEET WARNING IS IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE
FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS WILL MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY
AND VISIBILITY VERY POOR. AVOID DRIVING.

TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ABOUT THREE HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL OVER THE
BDP. BASE TC ALERT IS RED. EHECATL HAS WEAKENED... BUT STILL PACKS QUITE
THE PUNCH... WITH WIND GUSTS TO UP TO 200 KM/H POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN AVALANCHE OCCURRED EARLIER... WITH NO DEATHS OR INJURIES... AND MINOR
DAMAGE... IN THE MIDDLE GULPS WELL NORTHWEST OF STORM CENTRE. THIS INDICATES
THE REACH OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM... ALTHOUGH RADIUS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS HAS
DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE STORM WILL TAKE ABOUT NINE HOURS TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA... AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 1:30 AM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN
THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS.

SWC MTN