Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"

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{{Fakehurricane}}
 
{{Fakehurricane}}
−
{{Active storm|name=Severe Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon)
+
{{Active storm|name=Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon)
−
|category=intense|type=Severe tropical storm
+
|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
−
|time=0900 HPT
+
|time=2100 HPT
 
|date=May 6
 
|date=May 6
 
|year=2146
 
|year=2146
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 45.8°N 26.7°E]<br/>About 385 km (240 mi) southwest of Borleai Defence, Gulp Mountain Peninsula
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 46.9°N 27.6°E]<br/>Inland over the Borleai Defence Post
−
|winds=95 km/h (60 mph)
+
|winds=85 km/h (50 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
−
|pressure=990 hPa
+
|pressure=994 hPa
 
|movement=North-northeast at 19 kt}}
 
|movement=North-northeast at 19 kt}}
 
----
 
----
−
  TCUP3 WHCO 062105
+
  TCAD3 WHCO 062150
−
  TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
+
  TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 5
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
 
  9 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME
 
  9 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME
 
   
 
   
−
  ...TROPICAL STORM EHECATL MAKES LANDFALL EAST OF BORLEAI POINT WEST...
+
  ...EHECATL MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
 
   
 
   
 
  REPORTS FROM THE GROUND AT THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL
 
  REPORTS FROM THE GROUND AT THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL
−
  STORM EHECATL MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 10 TO 15 MINUTES AGO NEAR BORLEAI POINT
+
  STORM EHECATL MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9:25 PM LOCAL TIME NEAR BORLEAI POINT
 
  WEST... AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM.
 
  WEST... AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE
+
  AT 9 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
−
INLAND OVER THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR 46.9 N 27.6 E. THIS POSITION IS
+
OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT WEST
−
EXTRAPOLATED FROM FORECAST STORM MOVEMENT AND GROUND REPORTS.
+
  HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH FURTHER EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST
−
+
HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.
−
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP
+
−
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. THERE IS ALSO
+
−
A HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
+
−
  WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT... OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
+
−
+
−
TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY OVER LAND AS
+
−
IT STARTS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
+
−
+
−
THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY BEING PREPARED WITH THE LATEST
+
−
INFORMATION... AND WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 10 PM HPT.
+
−
+
−
FORECASTER HUNTER
+
−
 
+
−
----
+
−
TCIA3 WHCO 061835
+
−
TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 4A
+
−
[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
+
−
[[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
+
−
6 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME... 6:30 PM LOCAL TIME
+
−
+
−
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SYSTEM FINDS WEAKER STORM...
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP
+
−
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 6 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
−
  COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
+
PENINSULA... FROM BORLEAI POINT WEST EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. THIS
 +
  WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED SOON.
 
   
 
   
 
  REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
 
  REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
 
  WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
  WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 6 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
+
  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AT LANDFALL.
−
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.4 EAST... ABOUT 130 KM OR 80
+
  INITIAL MOTION IS .
−
  MILES SOUTH OF BORLEAI POINT WEST.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE NEAR 85 KM/H...
+
  AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE
−
  50 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
+
  INLAND OVER THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR LATITUDE 46.9 NORTH LONGITUDE
−
  ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS.
+
27.6 EAST. THIS POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM FORECAST STORM MOVEMENT AND
 +
  GROUND REPORTS.
 
   
 
   
−
  EHECATL IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... WITH AN EAST-NORTHEAST
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H... 50 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
−
MOTION EXPECTED IN AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS. ON THIS CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST
+
  HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
−
MOVEMENT... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 6 HOURS... OR AS SOON AS BY THE NEXT
+
−
  ADVISORY.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 KM... 215 MILES... FROM THE
+
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 305 KM... 190 MI... FROM THE
−
  CENTRE OF THE STORM. AT AROUND 1805 HPT... AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST
+
  CENTRE OF THE STORM. THESE GALE FORCE WIND RADII WILL SHRINK RAPIDLY OVER
−
AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 79 KM/H...
+
  THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS THE STORM WEAKENS.
−
  49 MPH... AND A GUST TO 109 KM/H... 68 MPH.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
+
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 994 HPA. A
−
  WAS 992 HPA.
+
  BAROMETER AT BORLEAI POINT WEST OBSERVED A 993 HPA VALUE AS THE STORM MADE
 +
LANDFALL.
 
   
 
   
 
  BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
 
  BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
 
  THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM
 
  THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM
 
  OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE.
 
  OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE.
−
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO 75 MM HAS FALLEN IN THE
 
−
LAST NINE HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 200 MM... 8 INCHES.
 
 
   
 
   
 
  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
 
  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
−
  MUDSLIDES... AND AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONE MINOR AVALANCHE WAS REPORTED
+
  MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M... 3 FT... WILL ALSO POSE A FLOOD
−
IN THE GULPS EARLIER TODAY... TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.
+
THREAT.
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEAT 6 PM HPT POSITION... 46.6 N 27.4 E... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H.
+
  NOW THAT EHECATL IS INLAND AND OVER MOUNTAINS... THIS COUPLED WITH ITS FAR
−
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS 992 HPA... AND EHECATL IS MOVING GENERALLY
+
  NORTH LATITUDE WILL QUICKLY TURN THE STORM EXTRATROPICAL. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
−
  NORTHEAST. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS.
+
  TO BE OVER LAND FOR NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS... BY WHICH TIME IT WILL ALREADY HAVE
 +
LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
 
   
 
   
−
  THIS IS THE FINAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT COMPLETE
+
  AS FOR THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... MOST MODELS TAKE IT OUT INTO THE NOLAN
−
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:40 PM HPT. A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... UNDER HEADER
+
  SOUND AND NORTHWARD... BECOMING A POWERFUL LOW... BEFORE DISSIPATING IT IN ABOUT
−
TCUP3 WHCO... WILL BE ISSUED UPON LANDFALL.
+
  FIVE DAYS.
−
+
−
FORECASTER HUNTER
+
−
 
+
−
----
+
−
TCAD3 HPCOR 061540 CCA
+
−
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 4...CORRECTED
+
−
[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
+
−
[[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
+
−
3 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME
+
−
+
−
...CORRECTED INITIAL 24 HOUR MOTION VECTOR TO 19 KT FROM 35 KT...
+
−
+
−
...SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL REMAINS ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL SOON...
+
−
+
−
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO... WITH ANOTHER
+
−
  FLIGHT DUE IN IN ABOUT AN HOUR. THE HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS FOUND DURING THAT FLIGHT
+
−
WERE UP TO 65 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL... WHILE A MANUAL DROPSONDE READING RECORDED
+
−
49 KT WINDS AT AROUND 1245 HPT WHEN THE PLANE WAS ABOUT TO LEAVE THE STORM.
+
−
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE
+
−
... AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW CLEAR 50-KNOT WIND VECTORS. INITIAL INTENSITY
+
−
IS RETAINED AT 50 KT. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE NORTHEASTWARDS...
+
−
SO 045/19. SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT COULD BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OR EAST.
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST FROM
+
−
DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
+
−
THIS STRETCH OF COAST.
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA COAST FROM
+
−
MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST SOUTHWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST.
+
−
+
−
REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
+
−
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
+
−
+
−
AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
+
−
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.2 EAST... ABOUT 225 KM OR 140
+
−
  MILES SOUTH OF BORLEAI POINT WEST.
+
−
+
−
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE NEAR 95 KM/H...
+
−
60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
+
−
ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH.
+
−
+
−
GENERAL 24-HOUR TRENDS SUGGEST EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
+
−
35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE
+
−
GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 9 HOURS.
+
−
+
−
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE
+
−
CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT...
+
−
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. AT AROUND 1140 HPT... AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST
+
−
AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 KM/H...
+
−
42 MPH... AND A GUST TO 105 KM/H... 65 MPH.
+
−
+
−
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
+
−
WAS 990 HPA.
+
−
+
−
BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
+
−
THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM
+
−
OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE.
+
−
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO 45 MM FELL IN THE
+
−
LAST SIX HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 180 MM... 7 INCHES.
+
−
+
−
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
+
−
MUDSLIDES... AND AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN AVALANCHE WAS CONFIRMED
+
−
TO HAVE OCCURRED AROUND 1348 LOCAL TIME... 1318 HPT... EARLIER TODAY.
+
−
+
−
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
−
  INITIAL TIME... 06/1500H
+
  INITIAL TIME... 06/2100H
−
   INITIAL... 46.4 N 27.2 E... 50 KT <!-- 06/2100H... 46.7 N 27.4 E... 45 KT...NEAR LANDFALL -->
+
   INITIAL... 46.9 N 27.6 E... 45 KT <!-- 07/0300H... 47.5 N 28.1 E... 30 KT...INLAND -->
−
07/0300H... 47.5 N 27.7 E... 30 KT...INLAND <!-- 07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL -->
+
07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
−
  07/1500H... 48.6 N 29.4 E... 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
+
  07/2100H...OVER WATER/EXTRATROPICAL
−
08/0300H...EXTRATROPICAL
+
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 46.4 NORTH 27.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
+
  REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... INLAND OVER BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR 46.9 NORTH
−
95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT.
+
27.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA.
 +
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT MAY 6.
+
  THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT MAY 7.
−
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1900 HPT MAY 6.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER RINDLI
+
  FORECASTER HUNTER
 
----
 
----
−
  TCTW03 FOLN 061545
+
  TCTW03 FOLN 062150
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
−
  ISSUED 1545 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
+
[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE]] FOLENISA
−
  ACTIVE TIME:        1500 21460506
+
  ISSUED 2150 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
−
  TROP CYC CENTRE:   FOLENISA/OREAN
+
  ACTIVE TIME:        2100H MAY 6 2146
−
  TROP CYC:           EHECATL
+
  WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
−
  WARNING NR:        4
+
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:   EHECATL
−
  POSITION:          46.4N 27.2E
+
  WARNING NR:        5
 +
  POSITION:          46.9N 27.6E...INLAND
 
  ACCURACY:          25NM
 
  ACCURACY:          25NM
 
  MOVEMENT:          NE 19KT
 
  MOVEMENT:          NE 19KT
−
  CENT PRES:          990HPA
+
  CENT PRES:          994HPA
−
  MAX WIND:          50KT
+
  MAX WIND:          45KT
−
  MAX GUST:          60KT
+
  MAX GUST:          VARIABLE
−
  FCST 12HR:         47.5N 27.7E...INLAND
+
  FCST 12HR PSTN:     48.0N 28.5E...INLAND
−
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT GUSTS VARIABLE
+
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    25KT G VARIABLE
−
  NXT WRN:           2100 21460506=
+
  NEXT WARNING AT:   0300H MAY 7 2146
 
----
 
----
 
  WXTC01 KBDP 061850
 
  WXTC01 KBDP 061850

Revision as of 10:16, 29 August 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.
Latest storm information
Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon)
Tropical storm
As of: 2100 HPT May 6, 2146
Location: 46.9°N 27.6°E
Inland over the Borleai Defence Post
Maximum
winds: 		85 km/h (50 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 994 hPa
Movement: North-northeast at 19 kt
Past advisories and discussions available here 
TCAD3 WHCO 062150
TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 5
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME

...EHECATL MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

REPORTS FROM THE GROUND AT THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL
STORM EHECATL MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9:25 PM LOCAL TIME NEAR BORLEAI POINT
WEST... AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT WEST
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH FURTHER EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST
HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA... FROM BORLEAI POINT WEST EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED SOON.

REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AT LANDFALL.
INITIAL MOTION IS .

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE
INLAND OVER THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR LATITUDE 46.9 NORTH LONGITUDE
27.6 EAST. THIS POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM FORECAST STORM MOVEMENT AND
GROUND REPORTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H... 50 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 305 KM... 190 MI... FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM. THESE GALE FORCE WIND RADII WILL SHRINK RAPIDLY OVER
THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS THE STORM WEAKENS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 994 HPA. A
BAROMETER AT BORLEAI POINT WEST OBSERVED A 993 HPA VALUE AS THE STORM MADE
LANDFALL.

BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M... 3 FT... WILL ALSO POSE A FLOOD
THREAT.

NOW THAT EHECATL IS INLAND AND OVER MOUNTAINS... THIS COUPLED WITH ITS FAR
NORTH LATITUDE WILL QUICKLY TURN THE STORM EXTRATROPICAL. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER LAND FOR NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS... BY WHICH TIME IT WILL ALREADY HAVE
LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

AS FOR THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... MOST MODELS TAKE IT OUT INTO THE NOLAN
SOUND AND NORTHWARD... BECOMING A POWERFUL LOW... BEFORE DISSIPATING IT IN ABOUT
FIVE DAYS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 06/2100H
 INITIAL... 46.9 N 27.6 E... 45 KT 
07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
07/2100H...OVER WATER/EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... INLAND OVER BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR 46.9 NORTH
27.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA.
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT MAY 7.

FORECASTER HUNTER

TCTW03 FOLN 062150
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA
ISSUED 2150 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        2100H MAY 6 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   EHECATL
WARNING NR:         5
POSITION:           46.9N 27.6E...INLAND
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 19KT
CENT PRES:          994HPA
MAX WIND:           45KT
MAX GUST:           VARIABLE
FCST 12HR PSTN:     48.0N 28.5E...INLAND
FCST 12HR WINDS:    25KT G VARIABLE
NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H MAY 7 2146

WXTC01 KBDP 061850
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER TWO
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL
CC MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
ISSUED AT 7:20 PM LOCAL TIME... 1850 HPT MAY 6 2146
IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA

CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES...
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7
AVALANCHE ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7
FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7
SLEET WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7

INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FLASH FLOOD WARNING... AND SLEET WARNING
ALL EXTENDED TO 7:30 AM LOCAL TIME TOMORROW... AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:30 PM TOMORROW...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BORLEAI POINT EAST NORTH TO VALLEY EAST
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. GUSTS FROM TROPICAL STORM
EHECATL TO WELL ABOVE 65 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. UP TO 255 MM... OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... WILL FALL ACROSS
THE EASTERN PENINSULA. MELTING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. IF IN A WARNING AREA... BE READY
TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE IF NECESSARY.

AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. AN AVALANCHE OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY...
WITH NO CASUALTIES AND LIGHT DAMAGE... BUT FURTHER AVALANCHES COULD OCCUR
AT ANY TIME. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS...
NO MATTER HOW HIGH... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE.

A SLEET WARNING IS IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE
FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS WILL MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY
AND VISIBILITY VERY POOR. AVOID DRIVING.

TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ABOUT THREE HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL OVER THE
BDP. BASE TC ALERT IS RED. EHECATL HAS WEAKENED... BUT STILL PACKS QUITE
THE PUNCH... WITH WIND GUSTS TO UP TO 200 KM/H POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN AVALANCHE OCCURRED EARLIER... WITH NO DEATHS OR INJURIES... AND MINOR
DAMAGE... IN THE MIDDLE GULPS WELL NORTHWEST OF STORM CENTRE. THIS INDICATES
THE REACH OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM... ALTHOUGH RADIUS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS HAS
DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE STORM WILL TAKE ABOUT NINE HOURS TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA... AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 1:30 AM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN
THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS.

SWC MTN
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