Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"

Revision as of 07:57, 24 August 2007

ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.

TCIA3 HPCOR 061225
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 3A
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
12 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 10 AM PAX TIME... 12:30 PM LOCAL TIME

...EHECATL STILL ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL NEAR/OVER BORLEAI DEFENCE POST...

AT 12 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHWEST POPULARFREEDOM IS BEING
DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED LIKELY FOR THE
AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA FROM MOUNTAIN BAY EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST... THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE BORLEAI POST... AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM
DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... FROM THE NORTHEAST REGION STATE LINE SOUTH TO BORLEAI
POINT EAST.

IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
MAY BE PRESENTLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE.

IN THIS CASE... A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA IN 12 TO 24 HOURS... OR HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 12 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 46.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.9 EAST... ABOUT 320 KM OR 200 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BORLEAI POINT WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
POSSIBLY TO HURRICANE FORCE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE GULP MOUNTAINS.

EHECATL REMAINS ON A GENERALLY NORTHEAST-BY-NORTH TRACK NEAR 35 KM/H OR 22 MPH.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... EHECATL WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR OR OVER THE BORLEAI
DEFENCE POST WITHIN 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT...
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST AT BORLEAI POINT
WEST RECENTLY RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 KM/H... 42 MPH...
AND A GUST TO 105 KM/H... 65 MPH. AN AFLE/AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA... 29.24 INCHES OF MERCURY... 74.26 CM HG.

BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. BORLEAI
DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO ONE INCH HAS ALREADY FALLEN
IN THE LAST THREE HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 8 INCHES.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES... OR AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

REPEATING THE 12 PM POSITION... 46.1 NORTH 26.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST-
BY-NORTH AT 19 KT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 6.

FORECASTER TIMMS/JARVIS

TCAD3 HPCOR 060940 CCA
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 3
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME

...EHECATL NOW A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM... HAS DEVIATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK...

THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA NOW MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND HAS
LEFT A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING CURRENTS TO THE EAST OF EHECATL. WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER FROM THE MAINLAND... EHECATL
SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING WITH A SHIFT EAST. THE OLD FORECAST TRACK IS NOW
CONSIDERED OUTDATED AND UNLIKELY.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM. INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM
AFLE AND HDCW AS WELL AS A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION FROM AROUND 0830 HPT WHICH
SUGGESTED A 993 HPA PRESSURE WITH 47 KT WINDS. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS
OF STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SINCE THEN... ABOUT 58-62 KT... HAVE SET INITIAL
INTENSITY A BIT HIGHER THAN SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

INITIAL MOTION IS BEST ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 025/19.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER
EAST TO MOUNTAIN BAY. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY HAS ALSO INFORMED
THE MSHPC THAT AT 9 AM HPT... ALL WARNINGS FOR LOX LAND ISLAND AND ITS WATERS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA FROM MOUNTAIN BAY EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE
POST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DECLARED
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA... NORTHWARD TO THE
STATE BORDER WITH THE NORTHEAST REGION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM
INCLUDING THE CITY OF PEARSON CLIFFS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.7 EAST... ABOUT 385 KM OR 240
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH.

EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS
FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT...
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY.

THE EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS 990 HPA.

BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
OR AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL MODELS ARE DISREGARDED AS THEY STILL SHOW THE STORM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST.
FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS MOVING INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE NOW-DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN
SOUND... AS WELL AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION 
IS EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH EHECATL'S WIND GUSTS COULD REACH WELL ABOVE HURRICANE
STRENGTH.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 06/0900H
 INITIAL... 45.8 N 26.7 E... 50 KT 
06/2100H... 46.7 N 27.4 E... 45 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 
07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
07/2100H...EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 45.8 NORTH 26.7 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 19 KT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 6.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 HPT MAY 6.
THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING
PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO.

FORECASTER HUNTER/RINDLI

TCTW03 FOLN 060945
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 0945 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0900 21460506
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           EHECATL
WARNING NR:         3
POSITION:           45.8N 26.7E
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           ENE 19KT
CENT PRES:          990HPA
MAX WIND:           50KT
MAX GUST:           60KT
FCST 12HR:          46.7N 27.4E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
NXT WRN:            1500 21460506=

TCLX1 LLWO 061300
LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 4 FOR SYSTEM 4603
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL
ISSUED AT 1:30 PM LST MAY 6 2145

ADVISORY NR 4
THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE 4:30 PM ADVISORY.
THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY.
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO
THE ISLAND OR ITS TERRITORIAL WATERS. IT IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 HOURS. 

THERE ARE NO ACTIVE LOX LAND ISLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

REPEAT REMARKS...
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON EXITING FORECAST WARNING AREA... LANDFALL
ON GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.
THIS FINAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE 4:30 PM PUBLIC BULLETIN.

THIS IS THE FINAL LLIWO PUBLIC BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO
MSHPC ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3
HPCOR.

FORECASTER NOBLE