Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
{{Fakehurricane}} | {{Fakehurricane}} | ||
− | {{Active storm|name= | + | {{Active storm|name=Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon) |
− | |category= | + | |category=storm|type=Tropical storm |
− | |time= | + | |time=2100 HPT |
|date=May 6 | |date=May 6 | ||
|year=2146 | |year=2146 | ||
− | |location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png | + | |location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 46.9°N 27.6°E]<br/>Inland over the Borleai Defence Post |
− | |winds= | + | |winds=85 km/h (50 mph) |
|windtype=1-minute sustained | |windtype=1-minute sustained | ||
− | |pressure= | + | |pressure=994 hPa |
|movement=North-northeast at 19 kt}} | |movement=North-northeast at 19 kt}} | ||
---- | ---- | ||
− | + | TCAD3 WHCO 062150 | |
− | TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) | + | TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 5 |
[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
[[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | ||
9 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME | 9 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME | ||
− | ... | + | ...EHECATL MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... |
REPORTS FROM THE GROUND AT THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL | REPORTS FROM THE GROUND AT THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL | ||
− | STORM EHECATL MADE LANDFALL | + | STORM EHECATL MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9:25 PM LOCAL TIME NEAR BORLEAI POINT |
WEST... AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM. | WEST... AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM. | ||
− | AT 9 PM HPT... THE | + | AT 9 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST |
− | + | OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT WEST | |
− | + | HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH FURTHER EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST | |
− | + | HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. | |
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN | |
− | + | PENINSULA... FROM BORLEAI POINT WEST EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. THIS | |
+ | WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED SOON. | ||
REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND | REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND | ||
WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | ||
− | AT | + | INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AT LANDFALL. |
− | + | INITIAL MOTION IS . | |
− | + | ||
− | + | AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE | |
− | + | INLAND OVER THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR LATITUDE 46.9 NORTH LONGITUDE | |
− | + | 27.6 EAST. THIS POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM FORECAST STORM MOVEMENT AND | |
+ | GROUND REPORTS. | ||
− | + | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H... 50 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. | |
− | + | HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. | |
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO | + | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 305 KM... 190 MI... FROM THE |
− | CENTRE OF THE STORM. | + | CENTRE OF THE STORM. THESE GALE FORCE WIND RADII WILL SHRINK RAPIDLY OVER |
− | + | THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS THE STORM WEAKENS. | |
− | + | ||
− | THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM | + | THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 994 HPA. A |
− | + | BAROMETER AT BORLEAI POINT WEST OBSERVED A 993 HPA VALUE AS THE STORM MADE | |
+ | LANDFALL. | ||
BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER | BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER | ||
THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM | THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM | ||
OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. | OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. | ||
− | |||
− | |||
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND | AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND | ||
− | MUDSLIDES... | + | MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M... 3 FT... WILL ALSO POSE A FLOOD |
− | + | THREAT. | |
− | + | NOW THAT EHECATL IS INLAND AND OVER MOUNTAINS... THIS COUPLED WITH ITS FAR | |
− | + | NORTH LATITUDE WILL QUICKLY TURN THE STORM EXTRATROPICAL. THE STORM IS EXPECTED | |
− | + | TO BE OVER LAND FOR NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS... BY WHICH TIME IT WILL ALREADY HAVE | |
+ | LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. | ||
− | + | AS FOR THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... MOST MODELS TAKE IT OUT INTO THE NOLAN | |
− | + | SOUND AND NORTHWARD... BECOMING A POWERFUL LOW... BEFORE DISSIPATING IT IN ABOUT | |
− | + | FIVE DAYS. | |
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT | OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT | ||
− | INITIAL TIME... 06/ | + | INITIAL TIME... 06/2100H |
− | INITIAL... 46. | + | INITIAL... 46.9 N 27.6 E... 45 KT <!-- 07/0300H... 47.5 N 28.1 E... 30 KT...INLAND --> |
− | + | 07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL | |
− | 07/ | + | 07/2100H...OVER WATER/EXTRATROPICAL |
− | + | ||
− | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... INLAND OVER BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR 46.9 NORTH |
− | + | 27.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. | |
+ | SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT. | ||
− | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY | + | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT MAY 7. |
− | + | ||
− | FORECASTER | + | FORECASTER HUNTER |
---- | ---- | ||
− | TCTW03 FOLN | + | TCTW03 FOLN 062150 |
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | ||
− | ISSUED | + | [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE]] FOLENISA |
− | ACTIVE TIME: | + | ISSUED 2150 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ |
− | + | ACTIVE TIME: 2100H MAY 6 2146 | |
− | + | WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | |
− | WARNING NR: | + | TROPICAL CYCLONE: EHECATL |
− | POSITION: 46. | + | WARNING NR: 5 |
+ | POSITION: 46.9N 27.6E...INLAND | ||
ACCURACY: 25NM | ACCURACY: 25NM | ||
MOVEMENT: NE 19KT | MOVEMENT: NE 19KT | ||
− | CENT PRES: | + | CENT PRES: 994HPA |
− | MAX WIND: | + | MAX WIND: 45KT |
− | MAX GUST: | + | MAX GUST: VARIABLE |
− | FCST 12HR: | + | FCST 12HR PSTN: 48.0N 28.5E...INLAND |
− | FCST 12HR WINDS: | + | FCST 12HR WINDS: 25KT G VARIABLE |
− | + | NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H MAY 7 2146 | |
---- | ---- | ||
WXTC01 KBDP 061850 | WXTC01 KBDP 061850 |
Revision as of 10:16, 29 August 2007
Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon) | |
---|---|
Tropical storm | |
As of: | 2100 HPT May 6, 2146 |
Location: | 46.9°N 27.6°E Inland over the Borleai Defence Post |
Maximum winds: |
85 km/h (50 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
Pressure: | 994 hPa |
Movement: | North-northeast at 19 kt |
Past advisories and discussions available here |
TCAD3 WHCO 062150 TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 5 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME ...EHECATL MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... REPORTS FROM THE GROUND AT THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL STORM EHECATL MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9:25 PM LOCAL TIME NEAR BORLEAI POINT WEST... AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM. AT 9 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT WEST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH FURTHER EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... FROM BORLEAI POINT WEST EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED SOON. REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AT LANDFALL. INITIAL MOTION IS . AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE INLAND OVER THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR LATITUDE 46.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.6 EAST. THIS POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM FORECAST STORM MOVEMENT AND GROUND REPORTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H... 50 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 305 KM... 190 MI... FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM. THESE GALE FORCE WIND RADII WILL SHRINK RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS THE STORM WEAKENS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 994 HPA. A BAROMETER AT BORLEAI POINT WEST OBSERVED A 993 HPA VALUE AS THE STORM MADE LANDFALL. BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M... 3 FT... WILL ALSO POSE A FLOOD THREAT. NOW THAT EHECATL IS INLAND AND OVER MOUNTAINS... THIS COUPLED WITH ITS FAR NORTH LATITUDE WILL QUICKLY TURN THE STORM EXTRATROPICAL. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER LAND FOR NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS... BY WHICH TIME IT WILL ALREADY HAVE LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. AS FOR THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... MOST MODELS TAKE IT OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND AND NORTHWARD... BECOMING A POWERFUL LOW... BEFORE DISSIPATING IT IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 06/2100H INITIAL... 46.9 N 27.6 E... 45 KT 07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 07/2100H...OVER WATER/EXTRATROPICAL REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... INLAND OVER BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR 46.9 NORTH 27.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT MAY 7. FORECASTER HUNTER
TCTW03 FOLN 062150 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA ISSUED 2150 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 2100H MAY 6 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: EHECATL WARNING NR: 5 POSITION: 46.9N 27.6E...INLAND ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: NE 19KT CENT PRES: 994HPA MAX WIND: 45KT MAX GUST: VARIABLE FCST 12HR PSTN: 48.0N 28.5E...INLAND FCST 12HR WINDS: 25KT G VARIABLE NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H MAY 7 2146
WXTC01 KBDP 061850 TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER TWO BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL CC MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA ISSUED AT 7:20 PM LOCAL TIME... 1850 HPT MAY 6 2146 IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES... INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 AVALANCHE ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7 FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 SLEET WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FLASH FLOOD WARNING... AND SLEET WARNING ALL EXTENDED TO 7:30 AM LOCAL TIME TOMORROW... AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:30 PM TOMORROW... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BORLEAI POINT EAST NORTH TO VALLEY EAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. GUSTS FROM TROPICAL STORM EHECATL TO WELL ABOVE 65 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA... ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. UP TO 255 MM... OF PRECIPITATION... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. MELTING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. IF IN A WARNING AREA... BE READY TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE IF NECESSARY. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. AN AVALANCHE OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY... WITH NO CASUALTIES AND LIGHT DAMAGE... BUT FURTHER AVALANCHES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS... NO MATTER HOW HIGH... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. A SLEET WARNING IS IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS WILL MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY AND VISIBILITY VERY POOR. AVOID DRIVING. TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ABOUT THREE HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL OVER THE BDP. BASE TC ALERT IS RED. EHECATL HAS WEAKENED... BUT STILL PACKS QUITE THE PUNCH... WITH WIND GUSTS TO UP TO 200 KM/H POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN AVALANCHE OCCURRED EARLIER... WITH NO DEATHS OR INJURIES... AND MINOR DAMAGE... IN THE MIDDLE GULPS WELL NORTHWEST OF STORM CENTRE. THIS INDICATES THE REACH OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM... ALTHOUGH RADIUS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE STORM WILL TAKE ABOUT NINE HOURS TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA... AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 1:30 AM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS. SWC MTN