TD03 (2146)

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TCAD3 WHCO 062150
TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 5
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME

...EHECATL MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

REPORTS FROM THE GROUND AT THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL
STORM EHECATL MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9:25 PM LOCAL TIME NEAR BORLEAI POINT
WEST... AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT WEST
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH FURTHER EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST
HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA... FROM BORLEAI POINT WEST EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED SOON.

REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AT LANDFALL.
INITIAL MOTION IS .

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE
INLAND OVER THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR LATITUDE 46.9 NORTH LONGITUDE
27.6 EAST. THIS POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM FORECAST STORM MOVEMENT AND
GROUND REPORTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H... 50 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 305 KM... 190 MI... FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM. THESE GALE FORCE WIND RADII WILL SHRINK RAPIDLY OVER
THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS THE STORM WEAKENS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 994 HPA. A
BAROMETER AT BORLEAI POINT WEST OBSERVED A 993 HPA VALUE AS THE STORM MADE
LANDFALL.

BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M... 3 FT... WILL ALSO POSE A FLOOD
THREAT.

NOW THAT EHECATL IS INLAND AND OVER MOUNTAINS... THIS COUPLED WITH ITS FAR
NORTH LATITUDE WILL QUICKLY TURN THE STORM EXTRATROPICAL. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER LAND FOR NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS... BY WHICH TIME IT WILL ALREADY HAVE
LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

AS FOR THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... MOST MODELS TAKE IT OUT INTO THE NOLAN
SOUND AND NORTHWARD... BECOMING A POWERFUL LOW... BEFORE DISSIPATING IT IN ABOUT
FIVE DAYS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 06/2100H
 INITIAL... 46.9 N 27.6 E... 45 KT 
07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
07/2100H...OVER WATER/EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... INLAND OVER BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR 46.9 NORTH
27.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA.
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT MAY 7.

FORECASTER HUNTER

TCTW03 FOLN 062150
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA
ISSUED 2150 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        2100H MAY 6 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   EHECATL
WARNING NR:         5
POSITION:           46.9N 27.6E...INLAND
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 19KT
CENT PRES:          994HPA
MAX WIND:           45KT
MAX GUST:           VARIABLE
FCST 12HR PSTN:     48.0N 28.5E...INLAND
FCST 12HR WINDS:    25KT G VARIABLE
NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H MAY 7 2146

WXTC01 KBDP 061850
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER TWO
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL
CC MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
ISSUED AT 7:20 PM LOCAL TIME... 1850 HPT MAY 6 2146
IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA

CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES...
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7
AVALANCHE ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7
FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7
SLEET WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7

INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FLASH FLOOD WARNING... AND SLEET WARNING
ALL EXTENDED TO 7:30 AM LOCAL TIME TOMORROW... AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:30 PM TOMORROW...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BORLEAI POINT EAST NORTH TO VALLEY EAST
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. GUSTS FROM TROPICAL STORM
EHECATL TO WELL ABOVE 65 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. UP TO 255 MM... OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... WILL FALL ACROSS
THE EASTERN PENINSULA. MELTING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. IF IN A WARNING AREA... BE READY
TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE IF NECESSARY.

AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. AN AVALANCHE OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY...
WITH NO CASUALTIES AND LIGHT DAMAGE... BUT FURTHER AVALANCHES COULD OCCUR
AT ANY TIME. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS...
NO MATTER HOW HIGH... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE.

A SLEET WARNING IS IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE
FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS WILL MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY
AND VISIBILITY VERY POOR. AVOID DRIVING.

TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ABOUT THREE HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL OVER THE
BDP. BASE TC ALERT IS RED. EHECATL HAS WEAKENED... BUT STILL PACKS QUITE
THE PUNCH... WITH WIND GUSTS TO UP TO 200 KM/H POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN AVALANCHE OCCURRED EARLIER... WITH NO DEATHS OR INJURIES... AND MINOR
DAMAGE... IN THE MIDDLE GULPS WELL NORTHWEST OF STORM CENTRE. THIS INDICATES
THE REACH OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM... ALTHOUGH RADIUS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS HAS
DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE STORM WILL TAKE ABOUT NINE HOURS TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA... AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 1:30 AM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN
THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS.

SWC MTN