TD03 (2146)/Past
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Advisory 1
MSHPC
TCAD3 HPCOR 052145 SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME RECON AIRCRAFT INTO HYBRID LOW EAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FOUND A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS UNDERGOING TROPICAL TRANSITION. CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTRE OF THIS DISTURBANCE... LEADING TO SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5/25KTS TO ST3.0. THE MAXIMUM WINDS FOUND BY RECONNAISSANCE WAS 51 KTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL... TRANSLATING TO 40 KTS AT THE SURFACE... SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS COMPLICATED... SUCH THAT WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE FORECAST POINTS EVERY SIX HOURS... RATHER THAN THE USUAL 12-24-36-48-72-96. INITIAL SIX HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/17. AT 9 PM HPT... THE LOX LAND ISLAND REGIONAL GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK SOUTH TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING THE CITY OF SCHIMPOL... AND THE TOWNS OF NORTHERN ROCK... CORNER BASE... AND TYSON. AS OF 9 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO THE TOWN OF DESINCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 24-36 HOURS. REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 PM HPT... THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A LAND GALE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM. THE GALES IN THIS AREA ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH EHECATL... AND RATHER ARE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH IS NOW WEAKENING... AND THIS WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WARNING IS FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM VICTORY UNION NORTHWARD TO LOYALTY BAY... EXTENDING INLAND THROUGH THE LOYALTY AND VICTORY MOUNTAINS. AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.1 EAST... ABOUT 320 KM OR 200 MILES EAST OF SCHIMPOL... OR ABOUT 675 KM OR 425 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. THE RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST MOTION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS DESCRIBED BELOW. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 420 KM... 260 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. A LARGER AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS EXIST IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS. UP TO 135 MM... 5.3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER LOX LAND ISLAND IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 155 MM... 6.1 INCHES. A FURTHER 130 TO 190 MM... 5.1 TO 7.5 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULP MOUNTAINS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER COMPLICATED. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... WHICH IS CAUSING THE SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS HIGH WILL FORCE EHECATL AWAY TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THIS HIGH AND TOWARDS MAINLAND LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... RATHER THAN OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND. INITIALLY EHECATL SHOULD TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER STEERING CURRENTS BROUGHT ON BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGH IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE THE NORTHWESTERLY TURN BEFORE TAKING A MORE NORTHWARDS TRACK. FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS FORECAST... MORDREL IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING NORTHEAST AT AROUND 32 KM/H... 20 MPH. INTENSITY-WISE... THE FORECAST DOES NOT EXPECT ANY STRENGTHENING. AS EHECATL UNDERGOES SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ITS PRESSURE WILL DROP... BUT IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES TO COAST. IN THE BELOW FORECAST... ALL POINTS ARE SIX-HOURLY AS OPPOSED TO THE USUAL 12-24-36-48- 72 AND 96 HOUR FORECAST POINTS. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 05/2100H INITIAL... 44.7 N 26.1 E... 40 KT 06/0300H... 45.3 N 26.6 E... 40 KT 06/0900H... 45.8 N 26.2 E... 40 KT 06/1500H... 46.4 N 25.7 E... 40 KT 06/2100H... 46.9 N 25.4 E... 35 KT 07/0300H... 47.6 N 25.2 E... 35 KT... NEAR LANDFALL 07/0900H... 48.4 N 25.2 E... 25 KT... DISSIPATING INLAND 07/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 44.7 NORTH 26.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK EAST AND SOUTHWARDS TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING SCHIMPOL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO DESINCO. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT MAY 6. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO. FORECASTER CALTS
TCTW03 FOLN 052145 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 2145 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 2100 21460505 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: EHECATL WARNING NR: 1 POSITION: 44.7N 26.1E ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: NE 17KT CENT PRES: 1002HPA MAX WIND: 40KT MAX GUST: 50KT FCST 12HR: 45.8N 26.2E FCST 12HR WINDS: 40KT G50KT NXT WRN: 0300 21460506=
LLIWO
TCLX1 LLWO 052200 LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 1 FOR SYSTEM 4603 SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL ISSUED AT 10:30 PM LST MAY 5 2145 ADVISORY NR 1 SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORMS WITHIN LLIWO'S JURISDICTION... 320 KM EAST OF SCHIMPOL. THIS IS THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON. INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 05/2130 LOX STANDARD TIME OR 9 PM HPT... POSITION WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +44.7 LON +26.0. MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE ARE 40 KT AND CURRENT MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. MOVEMENT NORTHEAST NEAR 30 KM/H. WIND RADII ARE RATHER LARGE AND ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG WINDS OF UP TO 75 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE. TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AS FOLLOWS... COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTHERN ROCK (+45.1/+24.5) EAST AND SOUTH TO CORNER BASE (+44.2/+24.9) INCLUDING SCHIMPOL. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING BOUNDED BY A LINE DRAWN BETWEEN NORTHERN ROCK AND CORNER BASE... AND THE COAST. FORECAST FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON... AT 06/0330H 45.3 NORTH 26.6 EAST WITHIN 45 NM. 40 KT 1001 HPA. AT 06/0930H 45.7 NORTH 26.2 EAST WITHIN 70 NM. 40 KT 1000 HPA. REPEAT REMARKS... SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORMS WITHIN LOX LAND WATERS. THIS IS THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SQUALLY WINDS OF UP TO 75 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 4:30 AM LST. THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3 HPCOR. ISSUED BY GORDON
Advisory 2
MSHPC
TCAD3 HPCOR 060345 CCA SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 002... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME ...CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY TO INLUDE INTERMEDIATE WARNING... EHECATL IS MOVING AS EXPECTED ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS NOW ENCOUNTERING THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS DUE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AGAIN IN TWO HOURS' TIME. FOR NOW... EHECATL IS HELD AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS CONVECTIVE PULSES NEAR THE CENTRE REMAIN INTERMITTENT... AND THERE ARE NO PERSISTENT AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE APPARENT LLCC. 0245 HPT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM T1.5... TO ST3.0. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO APPARENT CHANGE IN STRUCTURE OF THE STORM... THERE IS NO CHANGE MADE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY... WHICH IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS. INITIAL SIX HOUR MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 345/16. AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK SOUTH TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING SCHIMPOL AND TYSON. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... THIS WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED BY TODAY AFTERNOON. AT 3 AM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO THE TOWN OF DESINCO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THE LAND GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WINDS FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOW BEEN CANCELLED. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.6 EAST... ABOUT 1000 KM OR 625 MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS POPULARFREEDOM... OR ABOUT 675 KM OR 425 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA. THE RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST MOTION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS DESCRIBED BELOW. UP TO 135 MM... 5.3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER LOX LAND ISLAND IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 155 MM... 6.1 INCHES. A FURTHER 130 TO 190 MM... 5.1 TO 7.5 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULP MOUNTAINS. NO CHANGE MADE TO WIND RADII FOR NOW... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 420 KM... 260 MILES... FROM STORM CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HIGH SOUTH OF THE GULPS. WHAT THIS DOES TO THE FORECAST TRACK IS UNCERTAIN. WHETHER THE HIGH WILL NOW WEAKEN FURTHER AND RETREAT... AND IF IT DOES WILL EHECATL FOLLOW THE HIGH OUT. FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS EHECATL HAS TRACKED ALONG STEERING CURRENTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NOW THAT BOTH THE GRADIENT AND HIGH HAVE WEAKENED... THE FORECAST IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AND IN LOW CONFIDENCE. BASED ON CONTINUITY... AM FOLLOWING PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IS. AS DESCRIBED ABOVE... THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO HUGE ERRORS... DEPENDING ON THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF THE GULPS. BASED ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLIGHTLY EAST OF WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TURN BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT FOLENISAN DESERT BUILDS IN AND FORCES EHECATL NORTHWARDS AND INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST... EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 30 KM/H... 18 MPH. HOWEVER... IF THE FIRST SCENARIO VERIFIES... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM. SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR. BASED ON PREVIOUS FORECAST... NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR SLIGHT FALLS IN PRESSURE AS IT UNDERGOES TROPICAL TRANSITION... BEFORE WEAKENING CLOSE TO THE COAST. IF IT FOLLOWS THE HIGH OUT... THIS WILL BE WELL OFF AND IT WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SOME FAVOURABLE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS IN THE NOLAN SOUND... BEFORE RAPID WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH... THE MODELS ARE RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE ON THIS ONE. UHWF INITIALISES THE WEAKENING HIGH MOVING OUT AND EHECATL MOVING OUT WITH IT... AND MAKES IT A 55-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. HDCW MEANWHILE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT RSC/HPC FORECAST... MOVING WNW-WARDS BACK TOWARDS MAINLAND LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. DUE TO THE CURRENT SITUATION... NEITHER SCENARIO CAN BE RULED OUT RIGHT NOW. IN THE BELOW FORECAST... ALL POINTS ARE SIX-HOURLY... AND ARE EXTREMELY LOW-CONFIDENCE. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 06/0300H INITIAL... 45.3 N 26.6 E... 40 KT 06/0900H... 45.8 N 26.2 E... 40 KT 06/1500H... 46.4 N 25.7 E... 40 KT 06/2100H... 46.9 N 25.4 E... 35 KT 07/0300H... 47.6 N 25.2 E... 35 KT... NEAR LANDFALL 07/0900H... 48.4 N 25.2 E... 25 KT... DISSIPATING INLAND 07/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 45.3 NORTH 26.6 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT MAY 6. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0700 HPT MAY 6. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO. FORECASTER JARVIS/HUNTER
TCTW03 FOLN 060345 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 0345 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 0300 21460506 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: EHECATL WARNING NR: 2 POSITION: 45.3N 26.6E ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: WNW 16KT CENT PRES: 1000HPA MAX WIND: 40KT MAX GUST: 50KT FCST 12HR: 46.4N 25.7E FCST 12HR WINDS: 40KT G50KT NXT WRN: 0900 21460506=
LLIWO
TCLX1 LLWO 060400 LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 2 FOR SYSTEM 4603 SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA ISSUED AT 04:30 AM LST MAY 6 2145 ADVISORY NR 2 SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 06/0330 LST OR 3 AM HPT... POSITION ACCURATE TO 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +45.3 LON +26.6. MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE REMAIN 75 KM/H OR 40 KNOTS AND CURRENT ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA. MOVEMENT FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC... REFER TO RSC/HPC DISCUSSION TCAD3 HPCOR FOR MORE INFORMATION. WIND RADII ARE UNCHANGED SO DESPITE EPSILON MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE STILL ADVISED TO AVOID HIGH GROUND AND THE SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SQUALLY GUSTS CAN REACH 110 KM/H AT HIGH GROUND. TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AS FOLLOWS... COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTHERN ROCK (+45.1/+24.5) EAST AND SOUTH TO CORNER BASE (+44.2/+24.9) INCLUDING SCHIMPOL. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELLED. FORECAST FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON... EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO HUGE ERROR... AT 06/0930H 45.8 NORTH 26.2 EAST WITHIN 45 NM. 40 KT 997 HPA. AT 06/1530H 46.3 NORTH 25.8 EAST WITHIN 70 NM. 40 KT 997 HPA. REPEAT REMARKS... SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND BUT GUSTS OF UP TO 110 KM/H POSSIBLE AT HIGH GROUND AND AT SEA. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE SEA AND HIGH GROUND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 10:30 AM LST. THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3 HPCOR. FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN