TD03 (2146)/Past

Advisory 1

MSHPC

TCAD3 HPCOR 052145
SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME

RECON AIRCRAFT INTO HYBRID LOW EAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FOUND A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE THAT IS UNDERGOING TROPICAL TRANSITION. CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE
OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTRE OF THIS DISTURBANCE... LEADING TO SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5/25KTS TO ST3.0. THE MAXIMUM WINDS
FOUND BY RECONNAISSANCE WAS 51 KTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL... TRANSLATING TO 40 KTS
AT THE SURFACE... SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
COMPLICATED... SUCH THAT WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE FORECAST POINTS EVERY
SIX HOURS... RATHER THAN THE USUAL 12-24-36-48-72-96. INITIAL SIX HOUR
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/17.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE LOX LAND ISLAND REGIONAL GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK SOUTH
TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING THE CITY OF SCHIMPOL... AND THE TOWNS OF NORTHERN
ROCK... CORNER BASE... AND TYSON.

AS OF 9 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE
GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS
TO THE TOWN OF DESINCO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 24-36 HOURS.

REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A LAND GALE WARNING
FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM. THE GALES IN THIS AREA ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH EHECATL... AND RATHER ARE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
IS NOW WEAKENING... AND THIS WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WARNING IS FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM VICTORY UNION NORTHWARD
TO LOYALTY BAY... EXTENDING INLAND THROUGH THE LOYALTY AND VICTORY MOUNTAINS.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.1 EAST... ABOUT 320 KM OR 200
MILES EAST OF SCHIMPOL... OR ABOUT 675 KM OR 425 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY
BAY POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. THE RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST
MOTION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS DESCRIBED BELOW.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 420 KM... 260 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. A LARGER AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
EXIST IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS.

UP TO 135 MM... 5.3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER LOX LAND ISLAND IN THE NEXT
18-24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 155 MM... 6.1 INCHES. A FURTHER 130 TO
190 MM... 5.1 TO 7.5 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULP MOUNTAINS.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER COMPLICATED. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... WHICH IS CAUSING THE SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS HIGH WILL FORCE EHECATL
AWAY TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THIS HIGH AND TOWARDS MAINLAND LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... RATHER
THAN OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND. INITIALLY EHECATL SHOULD TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER
STEERING CURRENTS BROUGHT ON BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGH IT
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE THE NORTHWESTERLY TURN BEFORE TAKING A MORE NORTHWARDS TRACK.
FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS FORECAST... MORDREL IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 32 KM/H... 20 MPH.

INTENSITY-WISE... THE FORECAST DOES NOT EXPECT ANY STRENGTHENING. AS EHECATL UNDERGOES
SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ITS PRESSURE WILL DROP... BUT IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER
AS IT APPROACHES TO COAST.

IN THE BELOW FORECAST... ALL POINTS ARE SIX-HOURLY AS OPPOSED TO THE USUAL 12-24-36-48-
72 AND 96 HOUR FORECAST POINTS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 05/2100H
 INITIAL... 44.7 N 26.1 E... 40 KT
06/0300H... 45.3 N 26.6 E... 40 KT
06/0900H... 45.8 N 26.2 E... 40 KT
06/1500H... 46.4 N 25.7 E... 40 KT
06/2100H... 46.9 N 25.4 E... 35 KT
07/0300H... 47.6 N 25.2 E... 35 KT... NEAR LANDFALL
07/0900H... 48.4 N 25.2 E... 25 KT... DISSIPATING INLAND
07/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 44.7 NORTH 26.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 KT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN
ROCK EAST AND SOUTHWARDS TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING SCHIMPOL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE 
NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO DESINCO.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT MAY 6.
THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING
PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO.

FORECASTER CALTS

TCTW03 FOLN 052145
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 2145 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        2100 21460505
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           EHECATL
WARNING NR:         1
POSITION:           44.7N 26.1E
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 17KT
CENT PRES:          1002HPA
MAX WIND:           40KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR:          45.8N 26.2E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            0300 21460506=

LLIWO

TCLX1 LLWO 052200
LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 1 FOR SYSTEM 4603
SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL
ISSUED AT 10:30 PM LST MAY 5 2145

ADVISORY NR 1
SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORMS WITHIN LLIWO'S JURISDICTION... 320 KM
EAST OF SCHIMPOL. THIS IS THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON. INITIAL
ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 05/2130 LOX STANDARD TIME OR 9 PM HPT...
POSITION WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +44.7 LON +26.0. MAX WINDS
NEAR CENTRE ARE 40 KT AND CURRENT MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. MOVEMENT
NORTHEAST NEAR 30 KM/H.

WIND RADII ARE RATHER LARGE AND ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID
THE SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG WINDS OF UP TO 75 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AS FOLLOWS...
COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTHERN ROCK (+45.1/+24.5) EAST AND
SOUTH TO CORNER BASE (+44.2/+24.9) INCLUDING SCHIMPOL.
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING BOUNDED BY A LINE DRAWN BETWEEN NORTHERN ROCK
AND CORNER BASE... AND THE COAST.

FORECAST FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON...
AT 06/0330H 45.3 NORTH 26.6 EAST WITHIN 45 NM. 40 KT 1001 HPA.
AT 06/0930H 45.7 NORTH 26.2 EAST WITHIN 70 NM. 40 KT 1000 HPA.

REPEAT REMARKS...
SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORMS WITHIN LOX LAND WATERS. THIS IS THE FIRST
STORM OF THE SEASON. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE SEA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. STRONG SQUALLY WINDS OF UP TO 75 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 4:30 AM LST.
THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3
HPCOR.

ISSUED BY GORDON