TD03 (2146)/Past

Advisory 1

MSHPC

TCAD3 HPCOR 052145
SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME

RECON AIRCRAFT INTO HYBRID LOW EAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FOUND A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE THAT IS UNDERGOING TROPICAL TRANSITION. CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE
OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTRE OF THIS DISTURBANCE... LEADING TO SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5/25KTS TO ST3.0. THE MAXIMUM WINDS
FOUND BY RECONNAISSANCE WAS 51 KTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL... TRANSLATING TO 40 KTS
AT THE SURFACE... SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
COMPLICATED... SUCH THAT WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE FORECAST POINTS EVERY
SIX HOURS... RATHER THAN THE USUAL 12-24-36-48-72-96. INITIAL SIX HOUR
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/17.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE LOX LAND ISLAND REGIONAL GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK SOUTH
TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING THE CITY OF SCHIMPOL... AND THE TOWNS OF NORTHERN
ROCK... CORNER BASE... AND TYSON.

AS OF 9 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE
GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS
TO THE TOWN OF DESINCO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 24-36 HOURS.

REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A LAND GALE WARNING
FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM. THE GALES IN THIS AREA ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH EHECATL... AND RATHER ARE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
IS NOW WEAKENING... AND THIS WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WARNING IS FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM VICTORY UNION NORTHWARD
TO LOYALTY BAY... EXTENDING INLAND THROUGH THE LOYALTY AND VICTORY MOUNTAINS.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.1 EAST... ABOUT 320 KM OR 200
MILES EAST OF SCHIMPOL... OR ABOUT 675 KM OR 425 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY
BAY POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. THE RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST
MOTION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS DESCRIBED BELOW.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 420 KM... 260 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. A LARGER AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
EXIST IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS.

UP TO 135 MM... 5.3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER LOX LAND ISLAND IN THE NEXT
18-24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 155 MM... 6.1 INCHES. A FURTHER 130 TO
190 MM... 5.1 TO 7.5 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULP MOUNTAINS.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER COMPLICATED. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... WHICH IS CAUSING THE SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS HIGH WILL FORCE EHECATL
AWAY TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THIS HIGH AND TOWARDS MAINLAND LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... RATHER
THAN OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND. INITIALLY EHECATL SHOULD TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER
STEERING CURRENTS BROUGHT ON BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGH IT
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE THE NORTHWESTERLY TURN BEFORE TAKING A MORE NORTHWARDS TRACK.
FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS FORECAST... MORDREL IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 32 KM/H... 20 MPH.

INTENSITY-WISE... THE FORECAST DOES NOT EXPECT ANY STRENGTHENING. AS EHECATL UNDERGOES
SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ITS PRESSURE WILL DROP... BUT IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER
AS IT APPROACHES TO COAST.

IN THE BELOW FORECAST... ALL POINTS ARE SIX-HOURLY AS OPPOSED TO THE USUAL 12-24-36-48-
72 AND 96 HOUR FORECAST POINTS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 05/2100H
 INITIAL... 44.7 N 26.1 E... 40 KT
06/0300H... 45.3 N 26.6 E... 40 KT
06/0900H... 45.8 N 26.2 E... 40 KT
06/1500H... 46.4 N 25.7 E... 40 KT
06/2100H... 46.9 N 25.4 E... 35 KT
07/0300H... 47.6 N 25.2 E... 35 KT... NEAR LANDFALL
07/0900H... 48.4 N 25.2 E... 25 KT... DISSIPATING INLAND
07/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 44.7 NORTH 26.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 KT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN
ROCK EAST AND SOUTHWARDS TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING SCHIMPOL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE 
NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO DESINCO.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT MAY 6.
THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING
PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO.

FORECASTER CALTS

TCTW03 FOLN 052145
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 2145 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        2100 21460505
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           EHECATL
WARNING NR:         1
POSITION:           44.7N 26.1E
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 17KT
CENT PRES:          1002HPA
MAX WIND:           40KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR:          45.8N 26.2E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            0300 21460506=

LLIWO

TCLX1 LLWO 052200
LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 1 FOR SYSTEM 4603
SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL
ISSUED AT 10:30 PM LST MAY 5 2145

ADVISORY NR 1
SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORMS WITHIN LLIWO'S JURISDICTION... 320 KM
EAST OF SCHIMPOL. THIS IS THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON. INITIAL
ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 05/2130 LOX STANDARD TIME OR 9 PM HPT...
POSITION WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +44.7 LON +26.0. MAX WINDS
NEAR CENTRE ARE 40 KT AND CURRENT MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. MOVEMENT
NORTHEAST NEAR 30 KM/H.

WIND RADII ARE RATHER LARGE AND ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID
THE SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG WINDS OF UP TO 75 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AS FOLLOWS...
COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTHERN ROCK (+45.1/+24.5) EAST AND
SOUTH TO CORNER BASE (+44.2/+24.9) INCLUDING SCHIMPOL.
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING BOUNDED BY A LINE DRAWN BETWEEN NORTHERN ROCK
AND CORNER BASE... AND THE COAST.

FORECAST FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON...
AT 06/0330H 45.3 NORTH 26.6 EAST WITHIN 45 NM. 40 KT 1001 HPA.
AT 06/0930H 45.7 NORTH 26.2 EAST WITHIN 70 NM. 40 KT 1000 HPA.

REPEAT REMARKS...
SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORMS WITHIN LOX LAND WATERS. THIS IS THE FIRST
STORM OF THE SEASON. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE SEA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. STRONG SQUALLY WINDS OF UP TO 75 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 4:30 AM LST.
THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3
HPCOR.

ISSUED BY GORDON

Advisory 2

MSHPC

TCAD3 HPCOR 060345 CCA
SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 002... CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME

...CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY TO INLUDE INTERMEDIATE WARNING...

EHECATL IS MOVING AS EXPECTED ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS NOW
ENCOUNTERING THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. 

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS DUE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AGAIN IN TWO HOURS'
TIME. FOR NOW... EHECATL IS HELD AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS CONVECTIVE PULSES
NEAR THE CENTRE REMAIN INTERMITTENT... AND THERE ARE NO PERSISTENT AREAS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE APPARENT LLCC.

0245 HPT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM T1.5... TO ST3.0. SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN NO APPARENT CHANGE IN STRUCTURE OF THE STORM... THERE IS NO
CHANGE MADE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY... WHICH IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS. INITIAL
SIX HOUR MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 345/16.

AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK SOUTH TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING
SCHIMPOL AND TYSON. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... THIS WARNING
COULD BE CANCELLED BY TODAY AFTERNOON.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO THE TOWN OF
DESINCO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE
POST.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

THE LAND GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WINDS FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOW BEEN
CANCELLED.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.6 EAST... ABOUT 1000 KM OR 625
MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS POPULARFREEDOM... OR ABOUT 675 KM OR 425 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
HPA. THE RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST MOTION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS
DESCRIBED BELOW.

UP TO 135 MM... 5.3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER LOX LAND ISLAND IN THE NEXT
18 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 155 MM... 6.1 INCHES. A FURTHER 130 TO
190 MM... 5.1 TO 7.5 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULP MOUNTAINS.

NO CHANGE MADE TO WIND RADII FOR NOW... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 420 KM... 260 MILES... FROM STORM CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HIGH SOUTH OF THE GULPS.
WHAT THIS DOES TO THE FORECAST TRACK IS UNCERTAIN. WHETHER THE HIGH WILL NOW WEAKEN
FURTHER AND RETREAT... AND IF IT DOES WILL EHECATL FOLLOW THE HIGH OUT. FOR THE PAST
SIX HOURS EHECATL HAS TRACKED ALONG STEERING CURRENTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NOW THAT BOTH THE GRADIENT AND HIGH HAVE WEAKENED... THE FORECAST
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AND IN LOW CONFIDENCE.

BASED ON CONTINUITY... AM FOLLOWING PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IS. AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...
THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO HUGE ERRORS... DEPENDING ON THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SOUTH
OF THE GULPS. BASED ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SLIGHTLY EAST OF WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TURN BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT FOLENISAN DESERT BUILDS IN AND FORCES EHECATL
NORTHWARDS AND INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS
VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST... EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT AROUND 30 KM/H... 18 MPH. HOWEVER... IF THE FIRST SCENARIO VERIFIES...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM.

SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR.
BASED ON PREVIOUS FORECAST... NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR
SLIGHT FALLS IN PRESSURE AS IT UNDERGOES TROPICAL TRANSITION... BEFORE WEAKENING
CLOSE TO THE COAST. IF IT FOLLOWS THE HIGH OUT... THIS WILL BE WELL OFF AND IT
WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SOME FAVOURABLE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
12-24 HOURS IN THE NOLAN SOUND... BEFORE RAPID WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH... THE MODELS ARE RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE ON THIS ONE. UHWF
INITIALISES THE WEAKENING HIGH MOVING OUT AND EHECATL MOVING OUT WITH IT... AND
MAKES IT A 55-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. HDCW MEANWHILE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CURRENT RSC/HPC FORECAST... MOVING WNW-WARDS BACK TOWARDS MAINLAND LIVERPOOL ENGLAND.
DUE TO THE CURRENT SITUATION... NEITHER SCENARIO CAN BE RULED OUT RIGHT NOW.

IN THE BELOW FORECAST... ALL POINTS ARE SIX-HOURLY... AND ARE EXTREMELY LOW-CONFIDENCE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 06/0300H
 INITIAL... 45.3 N 26.6 E... 40 KT
06/0900H... 45.8 N 26.2 E... 40 KT
06/1500H... 46.4 N 25.7 E... 40 KT
06/2100H... 46.9 N 25.4 E... 35 KT
07/0300H... 47.6 N 25.2 E... 35 KT... NEAR LANDFALL
07/0900H... 48.4 N 25.2 E... 25 KT... DISSIPATING INLAND
07/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 45.3 NORTH 26.6 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT MAY 6.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0700 HPT MAY 6.
THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING
PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO.

FORECASTER JARVIS/HUNTER

TCTW03 FOLN 060345
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 0345 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0300 21460506
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           EHECATL
WARNING NR:         2
POSITION:           45.3N 26.6E
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 16KT
CENT PRES:          1000HPA
MAX WIND:           40KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR:          46.4N 25.7E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            0900 21460506=

LLIWO

TCLX1 LLWO 060400
LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 2 FOR SYSTEM 4603
SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL
ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
ISSUED AT 04:30 AM LST MAY 6 2145

ADVISORY NR 2
SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.
INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 06/0330 LST OR 3 AM HPT...
POSITION ACCURATE TO 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +45.3 LON +26.6.
MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE REMAIN 75 KM/H OR 40 KNOTS AND CURRENT
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA. MOVEMENT FORECAST IS
PROBLEMATIC... REFER TO RSC/HPC DISCUSSION TCAD3 HPCOR FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

WIND RADII ARE UNCHANGED SO DESPITE EPSILON MOVING AWAY FROM THE
ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE STILL ADVISED TO AVOID HIGH GROUND AND THE
SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SQUALLY GUSTS CAN REACH 110 KM/H
AT HIGH GROUND.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AS FOLLOWS...
COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTHERN ROCK (+45.1/+24.5) EAST AND
SOUTH TO CORNER BASE (+44.2/+24.9) INCLUDING SCHIMPOL.
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELLED.

FORECAST FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON...
EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO HUGE ERROR...
AT 06/0930H 45.8 NORTH 26.2 EAST WITHIN 45 NM. 40 KT 997 HPA.
AT 06/1530H 46.3 NORTH 25.8 EAST WITHIN 70 NM. 40 KT 997 HPA.

REPEAT REMARKS...
SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND BUT GUSTS OF
UP TO 110 KM/H POSSIBLE AT HIGH GROUND AND AT SEA. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED
TO AVOID THE SEA AND HIGH GROUND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 10:30 AM LST.
THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3
HPCOR.

FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN

Advisory 3

MSHPC

TCAD3 HPCOR 060940 CCA
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 3
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME

...EHECATL NOW A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM... HAS DEVIATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK...

THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA NOW MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND HAS
LEFT A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING CURRENTS TO THE EAST OF EHECATL. WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER FROM THE MAINLAND... EHECATL
SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING WITH A SHIFT EAST. THE OLD FORECAST TRACK IS NOW
CONSIDERED OUTDATED AND UNLIKELY.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM. INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM
AFLE AND HDCW AS WELL AS A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION FROM AROUND 0830 HPT WHICH
SUGGESTED A 993 HPA PRESSURE WITH 47 KT WINDS. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS
OF STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SINCE THEN... ABOUT 58-62 KT... HAVE SET INITIAL
INTENSITY A BIT HIGHER THAN SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

INITIAL MOTION IS BEST ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 025/19.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER
EAST TO MOUNTAIN BAY. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY HAS ALSO INFORMED
THE MSHPC THAT AT 9 AM HPT... ALL WARNINGS FOR LOX LAND ISLAND AND ITS WATERS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA FROM MOUNTAIN BAY EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE
POST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DECLARED
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA... NORTHWARD TO THE
STATE BORDER WITH THE NORTHEAST REGION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM
INCLUDING THE CITY OF PEARSON CLIFFS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.7 EAST... ABOUT 385 KM OR 240
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH.

EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS
FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT...
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY.

THE EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS 990 HPA.

BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
OR AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL MODELS ARE DISREGARDED AS THEY STILL SHOW THE STORM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST.
FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS MOVING INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE NOW-DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN
SOUND... AS WELL AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION 
IS EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH EHECATL'S WIND GUSTS COULD REACH WELL ABOVE HURRICANE
STRENGTH.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 06/0900H
 INITIAL... 45.8 N 26.7 E... 50 KT 
06/2100H... 46.7 N 27.4 E... 45 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 
07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
07/2100H...EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 45.8 NORTH 26.7 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 19 KT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 6.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 HPT MAY 6.
THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING
PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO.

FORECASTER HUNTER/RINDLI

TCTW03 FOLN 060945
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 0945 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0900 21460506
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           EHECATL
WARNING NR:         3
POSITION:           45.8N 26.7E
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           ENE 19KT
CENT PRES:          990HPA
MAX WIND:           50KT
MAX GUST:           60KT
FCST 12HR:          46.7N 27.4E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
NXT WRN:            1500 21460506=

LLIWO

TCLX1 LLWO 061000
LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 3 FOR SYSTEM 4603
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL
ISSUED AT 10:30 AM LST MAY 6 2145

ADVISORY NR 3
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.
INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 06/0930 LST OR 9 AM HPT...
POSITION ACCURATE TO 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +45.8 LON +26.7.
MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE NEAR 95 KM/H OR 50 KNOTS AND CURRENT
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA. MOVEMENT FORECAST IS
GENERALLY EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST... AROUND 35 KM/H.

EPSILON IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST FROM
THE LLIWO.

ALL LOX LAND ISLAND WATCHES ARE NOW CANCELLED.

FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...
AT 06/1530H 46.7 NORTH 27.4 EAST WITHIN 40 NM. 45 KT 992 HPA.
AT 06/2130H INLAND GULP MTN PN/OUTSIDE WARNING AREA.

REPEAT REMARKS...
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON EXITING FORECAST WARNING AREA... LANDFALL
ON GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 4:30 PM LST.
THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3
HPCOR.

FORECASTER NOBLE

Advisory 4

LLIWO

TCLX1 LLWO 061300
LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 4 FOR SYSTEM 4603
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL
ISSUED AT 1:30 PM LST MAY 6 2145

ADVISORY NR 4
THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE 4:30 PM ADVISORY.
THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY.
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO
THE ISLAND OR ITS TERRITORIAL WATERS. IT IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 HOURS. 

THERE ARE NO ACTIVE LOX LAND ISLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

REPEAT REMARKS...
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON EXITING FORECAST WARNING AREA... LANDFALL
ON GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.
THIS FINAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE 4:30 PM PUBLIC BULLETIN.

THIS IS THE FINAL LLIWO PUBLIC BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO
MSHPC ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3
HPCOR.

FORECASTER NOBLE

Gulp Mountain Peninsula SWC

WXTC01 KBDP 061300
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING BULLETIN
AVALANCHE WATCH BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BULLETIN NUMBER ONE
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL
ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
ISSUED AT 1:30 PM LOCAL TIME... 1300 HPT MAY 6 2146
IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA

...SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL TO BRING HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULPS...

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN GULP MOUNTAINS FROM
1 PM HPT MAY 6 TO 1 AM HPT MAY 7...
...AVALANCHE WATCH FOR ALL GULP MOUNTAINS FROM 1 PM HPT MAY 6 TO 1 PM HPT MAY 7...
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE PENINSULA FROM 1 PM HPT MAY 6
TO 1 AM HPT MAY 7...

THE PASSAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULPS. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS WILL
FALL AS SNOW... AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS RAIN OR SLEET.

A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI
POINT EAST... A COASTAL HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
PENINSULA... FROM THE STATE LINE EASTWARDS TO VALLEY EAST.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE EASTERN GULP
MOUNTAINS. WINDS... ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... WILL CONSISTENTLY
GUST TO WELL ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH... AT TIMES REACHING UP TO 180 KM/H.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 95 KM/H IS POSSIBLE. THE
STORM HAS A LARGE WIND RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... AND IS
ALREADY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WARNING IS EFFECTIVE FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

AN AVALANCHE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL MOUNTAINS IN THE PENINSULA...
LASTING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL RAISE THE POSSIBILITY AND PROBABILITY OF AN AVALANCHE.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS... BELOW 400 M...
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. UP TO 255 MM... TEN INCHES... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. MELTING SNOW
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE. THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM
CAN CARRY DEADLY DEBRIS. IF IN AN AVALANCHE WATCH AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS
AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR
AN AVALANCHE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY SO AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY CAN BE ISSUED.
IF IN LOW-LYING AREAS... PREPARE TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE SHOULD FLOODING
BE A PROBLEM.

A SLEET WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A SNOW ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
AS WELL.

REPEAT...
TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WILL BRING SEVERE WEATHER EFFECTS TO THE PENINSULA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FOR GUSTS AS STRONG
AS 100 KT AT HIGH ELEVATIONS... IS IN EFFECT. AVALANCHES ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR ONE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY.
LOW-LYING AREAS MAY BE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 7:30 PM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN
THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS.

SWC MTN