TD16 (2145)/Past
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Tropical Depression Sixteen
Advisory 1
4516 TCWC HPCOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (4516) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 3 PM PAX... LOCAL TIME... 5 PM HPT JUL 22 2145 AIRCRAFT RECON DETERMINES THAT SYSTEM WEST OF INEPTIA NEAR THE PAX MERIDIAN... PREVIOUSLY 94 INVEST... IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK DATA T-NUMBERS THIS SYSTEM IS RECEIVING FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES... AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORT OF JUST 31 KNOTS... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 25 KT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ALMOST STATIONARY... MOVEMENT... IF ANY... IS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN A FEW DAYS IT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING SOUTHWARD... AND THE ITCZ COULD ACTUALLY DISSIPATE OR ABSORB THE SYSTEM BACK IN. AT 5 PM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 0.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 950 KM... 595 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DANNSTADT, INEPTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 HPA OR MBAR AND THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS NO THREAT TO LAND. WITH 28 DEGREES C WATER... STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... AND AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE QUICKER SOUTHWARD IT WILL EITHER BE SHEARED APART OR ABSORBED BY THE ITCZ. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM... BEFORE SHEAR RIPS IT APART. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 22/1700H... ALL TIMES HPT. INITIAL... 12.4 N 0.7 E... 25 KT 22/2100H... 12.3 N 0.5 E... 25 KT 23/0300H... 12.0 N 0.4 E... 30 KT 23/1500H... 11.4 N 0.7 E... 35 KT 24/0300H... 10.7 N 1.2 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24/1500H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION... 12.4 NORTH 0.7 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 HPA. SYSTEM IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 2
4516 TCWC HPCOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (4516) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 PM PAX... LOCAL TIME... 9 PM HPT JUL 22 2145 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS DETERIORATED... AND RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTED BACK A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 30 KT AND MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1011 HPA. THEREFORE... INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED... 25 KT... AND FOR CONTINUITY'S SAKE I WILL KEEP THE DEPRESSION ALIVE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY SHOULD IT FAIL TO GENERATE NEW CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 30 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. GIVEN THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THOUGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHOUT STRENGTHENING IT MUCH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AT 9 PM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 0.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 1000 KM... 625 MILES WEST- SOUTHWEST OF DANNSTADT, INEPTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 HPA OR MBAR... AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KM/H... 7 MPH. SSTS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE... NEAR 29 DEG C... BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ TO THIS SYSTEM COULD MEAN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS LITTLE TIME... IF ANY... TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE DISSIPATION. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 22/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT. INITIAL... 12.3 N 0.5 E... 25 KT 23/0300H... 12.0 N 0.4 E... 25 KT 23/0900H... 11.5 N 0.4 E... 25 KT 23/2100H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 12.3 NORTH 0.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT NEAR 11 KM/H... 7 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CYCLONESVILLE BUREAU AT 3 AM HPT... UNDER THE SAME REGIONAL HEADER 4516 TCWC HPCOR. FORECASTER HUNTER