Difference between revisions of "2145 Heartland cyclone season"
| Line 27: | Line 27: | ||
|- | |- | ||
| '''Total [[WikiPedia:Accumulated Cyclone Energy|ACE]]:''' <br/><small>(LLIWO warnings do not count)</small> | | '''Total [[WikiPedia:Accumulated Cyclone Energy|ACE]]:''' <br/><small>(LLIWO warnings do not count)</small> | ||
| − | | | + | | 9.695 |
|- | |- | ||
| '''Fatalities:''' | | '''Fatalities:''' | ||
| Line 74: | Line 74: | ||
A circulation developed in an outer thunderstorm band of Ruva's, resulting in it being designated Tropical Depression Six. By the time a second advisory was issued three hours later, it had broken away from the main cyclone and slowed in forward speed, allowing it to intensify in warm waters, becoming a tropical storm. The warm waters allowed for rapid intensification, and Abaddon quickly became a hurricane. However, in the wake of Ruva, it weakened rapidly. Abaddon made landfall as a 60-knot tropical storm about 40 km north of Loyalty Bay. Four people aboard a ship off the PopularFreedom coast were killed by Abaddon. As the system began to dissipate over the Pearson Mountains, a portion of the system broke away and started moving northward, forming a circulation in the Nolan Sound on March 5, and strengthening into a tropical depression over warm waters later that day, prompting the MSHPC to resume advisories. It made a second quick landfall on PopularFreedom, dissipating inland. | A circulation developed in an outer thunderstorm band of Ruva's, resulting in it being designated Tropical Depression Six. By the time a second advisory was issued three hours later, it had broken away from the main cyclone and slowed in forward speed, allowing it to intensify in warm waters, becoming a tropical storm. The warm waters allowed for rapid intensification, and Abaddon quickly became a hurricane. However, in the wake of Ruva, it weakened rapidly. Abaddon made landfall as a 60-knot tropical storm about 40 km north of Loyalty Bay. Four people aboard a ship off the PopularFreedom coast were killed by Abaddon. As the system began to dissipate over the Pearson Mountains, a portion of the system broke away and started moving northward, forming a circulation in the Nolan Sound on March 5, and strengthening into a tropical depression over warm waters later that day, prompting the MSHPC to resume advisories. It made a second quick landfall on PopularFreedom, dissipating inland. | ||
| − | ===Hurricane Yuri | + | ===Hurricane Yuri (Alpha)=== |
:''[[TD07 (2145)|Latest advisory]]'' | :''[[TD07 (2145)|Latest advisory]]'' | ||
:''[[TD07 (2145)/Past|Advisory archive]]'' | :''[[TD07 (2145)/Past|Advisory archive]]'' | ||
| − | The newly-appointed Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, the Lox Land Island Weather Observatory, started advising on a tropical storm early on March 4, despite there not being even an official mention of such a system in the MSHPC's Tropical Weather Update. This was attributed to a missed TWU at 3 a.m. HPT on March 4. The MSHPC recognised the storm at 9:45 a.m. the same day. Alpha weakened very rapidly as conditions were not favourable and the MSHPC issued its last advisory barely twelve hours after the first. However, TCWC LLIWO continued issuing advisories on the system, and the MSHPC were embarrassed when the system regained tropical storm status despite them having classified it as "dissipating". The MSHPC resumed advisories at 9:30 a.m. on March 5, and later that day Yuri strengthened into a hurricane. | + | The newly-appointed Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, the Lox Land Island Weather Observatory, started advising on a tropical storm early on March 4, despite there not being even an official mention of such a system in the MSHPC's Tropical Weather Update. This was attributed to a missed TWU at 3 a.m. HPT on March 4. The MSHPC recognised the storm at 9:45 a.m. the same day. Alpha weakened very rapidly as conditions were not favourable and the MSHPC issued its last advisory barely twelve hours after the first. However, TCWC LLIWO continued issuing advisories on the system, and the MSHPC were embarrassed when the system regained tropical storm status despite them having classified it as "dissipating". The MSHPC resumed advisories at 9:30 a.m. on March 5, and later that day Yuri strengthened into a hurricane. Yuri left the AOR of TCWC LLIWO as a Category 2 hurricane. |
===Tropical Depression Eight=== | ===Tropical Depression Eight=== | ||
| Line 185: | Line 185: | ||
{|width="95%" | {|width="95%" | ||
| | | | ||
| − | * | + | *[[TD07 (2145)/Past|Alpha]] |
*Beta | *Beta | ||
*Gamma | *Gamma | ||
Revision as of 02:45, 9 August 2006
| First system formed1: | February 5, 2145 (Veiru) | |
| Active systems1: | Yuri, TD Eight | |
| Total named storms: | 6 | |
| Total hurricanes: | 3 | |
| Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): |
0 | |
| Strongest storm: | Abaddon (165 km/h, 969 hPa) | |
| Landfalling systems1: | 4 | |
| Total damages: | At least L£106 million | |
| Total ACE: (LLIWO warnings do not count) |
9.695 | |
| Fatalities: | 156 confirmed | |
1(Sub)tropical systems of at least depression strength (>25 mph) | ||
The 2145 Heartland cyclone season officially runs from March 1 to November 1 (February 14 to December 14 in some areas), although these dates just conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in The Heartland. This season, the first storm, Subtropical Storm Veiru, formed on February 5 in an area where the season starts on March 1.
Seasonal predictions
Three sets of pre-season predictions were released; the first, on November 18, 2144, was released by the Lox Land Island Weather Observatory, and called for 10 depressions, 8 tropical storms and 3 hurricanes. The official preseason forecast from the Liverpool England Met Service's Hurricane Prediction Centre called for 10 tropical storms, of which 4 would be hurricanes and one would break the Category 3 mark. The final pre-season forecast was released on January 9, and was the most pessimistic of all, released by experts at the Orean College of Meteorology in Orean. It noted that due to La Niña around 17 depressions would form, of which 11 would make Tropical Storm strength, 9 hurricane strength, three major hurricanes and at least one Category 5 hurricane.
Less than one week into the official season, new forecasts were released by the newly-appointed Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre the Lox Land Island Weather Observatory, the official TCWC the Liverpool England MSHPC, and the experts at the Orean College of Meteorology. The LLIWO TCWC announced its new forecast of 15 tropical depressions for the region, 11 tropical storms, 5 of which would reach hurricane strength, and one being a major hurricane, while the MSHPC increased its original prediction to 18 tropical storms, but decreased its forecast of the number of hurricanes to 7, of which only one would crack the Category Three barrier. The Orean College of Meteorology experts cited the unusually active preseason and start of season in increasing their forecast to 22 tropical depressions, 16 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The TCWC LLIWO also released their first-ever official forecast for its area of responsibility (a 400 km radius from the coast of the island plus the Lox Gulf), mentioning an expectation for 9 named systems (including depressions).
Storms
Hurricane Veiru
A non-tropical area of low pressure, embedded in a trough northwest of Cokekila, was first spotted on February 3. Over time a gale centre developed, and by February 5 north of North Boston, Cokekila, the system had detached itself from the trough and gained enough tropical characteristics to be designated Subtropical Storm Veiru. Later that day, it had gained full tropical characteristics and had turned northwards towards Dashake, prompting the emergency release of hurricane warnings for the Dashake coast. By 4 pm local time, the storm had strengthened into a hurricane. Nearing the Dashake coast, localised flooding was reported in some areas, along with three casualties. It strengthened into a Category Two hurricane early the next morning. At 4 am local time, it made landfall. 81 fatalities were reported in the three hours from when it became a Category 2 storm to landfall. Following landfall, the storm turned sharply west-northwest, as had been predicted. Seven people were killed by flying debris and falling trees in Sealdre after the storm started moving away. The storm then moved westwards towards Portland, triggering fears of flooding. However, it exited back into the open waters, and stalled, oscillating in intensity between a depression and a storm. Tornado warnings were needed for Portland for 4 hours. Two tornadoes were reported, with no deaths from either. The system began to lose tropical characteristics, and the MSHPC stopped monitoring it. Veiru caused at least 132 deaths in all, making it the deadliest storm in Heartland history.
Tropical Storm George
Late on February 5, while most attention was focused on Hurricane Veiru, a disturbed area of low pressure that the MSHPC had been monitoring gained enough sustained windspeed to be classified a tropical depression, marking what seemed to be an extraordinarily active pre-season. Early February 6, the storm lost strength and a final advisory was issued. However, the storm had not lost circulation, and not too much later, at 8:30 am HPT (9 am local time), the MSHPC issued an advisory saying the storm had undergone rapid strengthening and was almost a tropical storm. By the 12 pm HPT update, the storm had strengthened into Tropical Storm George. George then started gaining forward speed, and made landfall on Torquay much earlier than expected, but also weaker than expected. 10 deaths were reported from this system.
Tropical Storm Felicia
On March 1, the official start of the hurricane season, a weak low-pressure centre was noticed slightly northeast of where George had dissipated. The system suffered under heavy shear, but managed to move out of it and obtained a closed circulation, which it had been lacking, on March 2, already at tropical storm strength, earning the name Felicia, contributed by Ineptia. The storm quickly weakened back to a tropical depression under increasingly unfavourable conditions, before losing tropicality.
Tropical Depression Four
On March 3, a system which was in extremely favourable conditions for tropical cyclones formed off the coast of Grays Harbor. However, the system unexpectedly lost tropicality within hours of its detection, puzzling many experts.
Tropical Storm Ruva
On March 3, another system the MSHPC had been monitoring, east of Schimpol, Liverpool England, had gained a closed circulation and was thus designated a Tropical Depression. This system took a turn to the southeast, and gained enough strength to be designated Tropical Storm Ruva. Bursts of convection away from the reported centre of the storm were then observed to be developing a new circulation, resulting in the declaration of a new tropical depression, which formed from Ruva. It made landfall south of Loyalty Bay and dissipated over the Loyalty Mountains. Three people died indirectly as a result of Ruva.
Hurricane Abaddon
A circulation developed in an outer thunderstorm band of Ruva's, resulting in it being designated Tropical Depression Six. By the time a second advisory was issued three hours later, it had broken away from the main cyclone and slowed in forward speed, allowing it to intensify in warm waters, becoming a tropical storm. The warm waters allowed for rapid intensification, and Abaddon quickly became a hurricane. However, in the wake of Ruva, it weakened rapidly. Abaddon made landfall as a 60-knot tropical storm about 40 km north of Loyalty Bay. Four people aboard a ship off the PopularFreedom coast were killed by Abaddon. As the system began to dissipate over the Pearson Mountains, a portion of the system broke away and started moving northward, forming a circulation in the Nolan Sound on March 5, and strengthening into a tropical depression over warm waters later that day, prompting the MSHPC to resume advisories. It made a second quick landfall on PopularFreedom, dissipating inland.
Hurricane Yuri (Alpha)
The newly-appointed Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, the Lox Land Island Weather Observatory, started advising on a tropical storm early on March 4, despite there not being even an official mention of such a system in the MSHPC's Tropical Weather Update. This was attributed to a missed TWU at 3 a.m. HPT on March 4. The MSHPC recognised the storm at 9:45 a.m. the same day. Alpha weakened very rapidly as conditions were not favourable and the MSHPC issued its last advisory barely twelve hours after the first. However, TCWC LLIWO continued issuing advisories on the system, and the MSHPC were embarrassed when the system regained tropical storm status despite them having classified it as "dissipating". The MSHPC resumed advisories at 9:30 a.m. on March 5, and later that day Yuri strengthened into a hurricane. Yuri left the AOR of TCWC LLIWO as a Category 2 hurricane.
Tropical Depression Eight
A low-pressure system embedded in a tropical wave east of PopularFreedom showed signs of organising late on March 4. Despite convection dropping off towards the end of March 5, the MSHPC designated it as a tropical depression early on March 6.
Timeline of events
- All times are local standard time.
February
- February 5
- 4 am (PAX -2) - Subtropical Storm Veiru forms from a previously non-tropical gale system north of Cokekila.
- 10 am (PAX -2) - Subtropical Storm Veiru gains full tropical characteristics and is redesignated Tropical Storm Veiru.
- 4 pm (PAX -2) - Tropical Storm Veiru strengthens into Hurricane Veiru.
- 11:30 pm (PAX +2:30) - Tropical Depression 02SE forms north of Xanthis, Vlavianos.
- February 6
- 5:30 am (PAX +2:30) - Tropical Depression 02SE weakens and the last advisory on it is issued.
- 1 am (PAX -2) - Hurricane Veiru strengthens into a Category 2 storm.
- 4 am (PAX -2) - Hurricane Veiru makes landfall in Dashake as a Category 2 hurricane.
- 9 am (PAX +2:30) - Tropical Depression 02SE is reported to have near-tropical storm-force sustained winds, and advisories are resumed.
- 12 pm (PAX +2) - Tropical Depression 02SE strengthens into Tropical Storm George.
- 6 pm (PAX +2) - Tropical Storm George makes landfall on the southwesternmost island of Torquay.
- 4 pm (PAX -2) - Tropical Depression Veiru regains tropical storm strength and is redesignated Tropical Storm Veiru.
- 9 pm (PAX +2) - The final advisory is released for the dissipating Tropical Depression George.
- February 7
- 4 am (PAX -2) - Tropical Storm Veiru is downgraded to a subtropical depression, and the final advisory is issued for the system.
March
- March 2
- 5:30 am (PAX +2) - Tropical Storm Felicia forms 1200 km southwest of Carstairs, Torquay.
- March 3
- 7 am (PAX) - Tropical Depression Four forms near the NW/NE Districts sea border.
- 3 pm (PAX +2) - Tropical Depression Felicia loses tropicality and the last advisory is issued.
- 3:30 pm (PAX +2:30) - Tropical Depression Five forms about 350 km east of Schimpol, Liverpool England.
- 6 pm (PAX +2) - Tropical Depression Four loses extratropicality and the last advisory is issued.
- 6:30 pm (PAX +2:30) - Tropical Depression Five strengthens into Tropical Storm Ruva.
- 9:30 pm (PAX +2:30) - Tropical Depression Six forms from the outer bands of Ruva.
- March 4
- 12:30 am (PAX +2:30) - Tropical Depression Six strengthens into Tropical Storm Abaddon.
- 3:30 am (PAX +2:30) - Tropical Storm Abaddon strengthens into Hurricane Abaddon.
- 6 am (PAX +2:30) - Tropical Storm Ruva makes landfall about 15 km south of Loyalty Bay, PopularFreedom.
- 7 am (PAX +2:30) - The LLIWO designates a system as Tropical Storm Alpha.
- 9:30 am (PAX +2:30) - Hurricane Abaddon strengthens into a Category 2 storm.
- 10:15 am (PAX +2:30) - The MSHPC designates Alpha as Tropical Storm Yuri.
- 4 pm (PAX +3) - The MSHPC issues its last advisory on dissipated Tropical Depression Ruva.
- 7 pm (PAX +3) - Abaddon makes landfall about 40 km north of Loyalty Bay as a tropical storm with 110 km/h sustained winds, and the last advisory is issued.
- 9:30 pm (PAX +2:30) - The MSHPC issues its last advisory on Tropical Depression Yuri.
- March 5
- 1 am (PAX +2:30) - The LLIWO upgrades Tropical Depression Alpha to Tropical Storm Alpha.
- 9:30 am (PAX +2:30) - The MSHPC beings re-issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Yuri.
- 9:30 pm (PAX +2:30) - Tropical Storm Yuri strengthens into Hurricane Yuri.
- 10 pm (PAX +3) - The MSHPC designates a system southwest of Pearson Cliffs as a tropical depression, and it is deemed to be part of the remnant circulation of Tropical Depression Abaddon, thus keeping the name.
- March 6
- 4 am (PAX +3) - Tropical Depression Abaddon makes a second landfall 990 km southwest of Pearson Cliffs and dissipates inland.
- 6 am (PAX +4) - The MSHPC designates a system east of PopularFreedom as Tropical Depression Eight.
2145 storm names
Official MSHPC list
Storms are named by nations within the Liverpool England Area of Responsibility; 16 nations submitted names to name cyclones with in 2140. In 2145, the names contributed by Aerigia and Upper Biswald was struck from the list. The name contributed by Aerigia, "Bonita", had been used in 2140, and will be the only usage of the name for a tropical cyclone in The Heartland. Only storms of tropical storm strength get named; if the 14 names run out, the list reverts to the old pre-2140 naming scheme. Unused names are greyed out; the first one this season was be Veiru. Active storms are bolded.
| Contributing Nation | New namelist | Old namelist 1 | Old namelist 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aerigia | |
Amy | Alfred |
| Bowieknife | Mordrel | Brent | Bonny |
| East Kompa Ru | Veiru | Cassandra | Casey |
| Grays Harbor | George | Douglas | Denni |
| Ineptia | Felicia | Eileen | Emmanuel |
| Kompa Ru | Ruva | Frank | Fanny |
| Laudo Deo | Abaddon | Grace | Gerald |
| Liverpool England | Yuri (active) | Henry | Halle |
| Miraclia | Gyarnifq | Iola | Ian |
| PopularFreedom | Oren | Jake | Jova |
| South Packerlands | Nitschke | Kate | Kevin |
| Upper Biswald | |
Lewis | Laura |
| Valdaire | Griel | Malissa | Matthew |
| Vassfforcia | Mirscqy | Nicholas | Nigella |
| Vlavianos | Araes | Penelope | Pete |
| West Kompa Ru | Linas | Ralph | Renée |
| Sandra | Steven | ||
| Thomas | Tina | ||
| Victoria | Vincent | ||
| William | Wanda |
Retirement
Names are retired for strong negative connotations due to damage, deaths caused or political sensitivity. However, this season, Bonita, contributed by Aerigia, and Huelwen, from Upper Biswald, were retired due to either the nations leaving the region, or ceasing. If any of the remaining 14 pre-submitted names are retired by process, the nation is asked to submit a new name. If any of the other standard names are retired, a name from the backup list is used to replace the retired name. Names retired will be decided on in December 2145.
Unofficial LLIWO TCWC list
In March 2145, the MSHPC appointed the Lox Land Island Weather Observatory as a tropical cyclone warning centre for all cyclones within a 400-km radius of the island, and allowed it to warn on systems and name them as it saw fit, as long as the names did not clash with the official name list. The chosen names were from the Greek and Phoenician alphabets. This list will repeat from "Alpha" as soon as "Daleth" is used. Names are used sequentially. If there are more than 10 storms warned on by the TCWC, the storms would be named backwards, i.e. Storm #11 would be named "Ahpla", storm #12 "Ateb", storm #13 "Ammag", et cetera.
|
|
|
|
